Daily Market Commentary

Day 9: Investors Digest A Slew of Economic & Earnings News

18 Feb

Thursday, February 18, 2010
Market Commentary:

Investors digested a slew of economic and earnings news on the 9th day of the current rally attempt. The earnings and economic news of the day sent mixed economic signals. Retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT) gapped down and sliced below its 50 DMA line after reporting tepid Q4 results. Earnings rose +9% while sales rose +1% vs. the same period in the prior year. While this was a strong improvement from the first three quarters of 2009, analysts were expecting better results. Barring some unforeseen event, the average company in the benchmark S&P 500 grew its earnings close to +70% last quarter which snapped a record nine quarter losing streak.
Fed Unexpectedly Raises Rates From +0.50% to +0.75%:
The Federal Reserve shocked investors when it unexpectedly raised its discount rate, the interest rate it charges banks for emergency loans, from +0.50% to +0.75%. The rate hike will be effective on Friday. The Fed said that “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.”
Tepid Economic News:

The news on the economic front was lackluster at best. The Labor Department said the number of US workers filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped last week. Initial jobless claims for state unemployment benefits rose +31,000 to +473,000 which paled in comparison to the Street’s estimate of +430,000. Elsewhere, producer prices rose sharply last month which suggests inflation is on the rise. The producer price index topped estimates and rose +1.4% from December. Economists believe that higher energy prices and unusually cold temperatures sent prices higher last month.

Market Action- In A Correction:

Looking at the market, the major averages continue to trade near their respective 50 DMA lines as they consolidate their recent move. Remember that as long as February 5th lows are not breached the window remains open for a new follow-through day (FTD) to emerge. A new follow-through day will confirm the current rally attempt and will be produced when one of the major averages rallies at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of leaders breakout of sound bases. However, if the February 5, 2010 lows are breached then the day count will be reset and a steeper correction may unfold.
It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines which were support and are now acting as resistance. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data which remains a concern. Remember that the market remains in a correction until a new new follow-through day emerges. Until then, patience is paramount.
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17 Aug
Daily Market Commentary

U.S. Stocks; Forming A New Base

Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors across the globe digested France and Germany’s important meeting on Tuesday. In the U.S., the window remains open for a new FTD to emerge which will confirm the current rally attempt. Technically, as long as last Tuesday’s (8.16.11) lows hold- there is a strong chance that the markets may be forming a short-term low. However, there is no rush to buy ahead of a FTD because doing so increases the odds of failure. To be clear, the bears remain in control of this market until the major averages close above their longer term 200 DMA lines or a new FTD emerges. A new follow-through day will emerge when at least one of the major averages rallies at least +1.8% on higher volume than the prior session. Until that happens, this is just a normal “oversold” bounce. Near term resistance remains the 200 DMA line and near term support remains the 2011 lows (last week’s low).

Mortgage Apps Fall & Produce Price Index Jumps!

Before Wednesday’s open, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said mortgage applications slid by a disturbingly large -9.1%. The report blamed tepid economic conditions and a volatile stock market for the two primary reasons behind the large decline. Separately, the Labor Department said its produce price index (PPI) rose +0.2% despite lower energy prices. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose +0.4% which was the largest increase since January and rose +0.3% in June. Since the March 2009 bottom, inflation has remained largely at bay which has helped alleviate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. However, if inflation swells over the next few quarters than the Fed may be put in a precarious situation; raise rates to curb inflation or leave rates low to stimulate the stale economy?

Market Outlook- Market In A Correction

The latest action in the major averages suggests the market is back in a correction as all the major averages remain below key technical levels. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests caution is paramount at this stage until all the major averages rally back towards their respective 200 DMA lines. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
 

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16 Feb
Daily Market Commentary

S&P 500 Up 100% From March 2009 Low!

Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks rallied on Wednesday after the latest round of economic, earnings, & M&A news were released. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low! The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low! On average, market internals remain healthy as the major averages continue marching higher. The fact that the major averages bounced back sharply after a very brief pullback in January illustrates how strong this 25-week rally actually is.

Housing Starts, PPI, and Industrial Production:

After Tuesday’s close, Dell (DELL), the world’s second largest computer manufacturer said earnings and revenue easily topped estimates. This set the stage for a healthy rally in a slew of tech stocks. The news on the M&A front was also healthy as Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) said it plans to acquire Genzyme (GENZ) for $20.1 billion in cash and activist investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Group offered to acquire Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO) for $55 to $60 per share in cash or $7.6 billion.
Housing construction was mixed last month and remained at a very weak levels. Starts advanced while permits fell back. Housing starts rose +14.6% after falling -5.1% in December. Elsewhere, the producer price index (PPI) rose which suggests inflation is accelerating. The headline number rose +0.8%, matching the median forecast. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose +0.5% which topped the Street’s estimate for a +0.2% gain. If inflation continues to accelerate, the Fed will have more pressure to raise rates sooner than expected. A separate report showed industrial production falling to 5.2% from 6.3% in December. At 2pm EST, the FOMC released the minutes of its latest meeting which largely reiterated their recent support for QE II.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 25 Begins

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

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15 Jul
Daily Market Commentary

Dow & Nasdaq Snap A 7-Day Winning Streak; Nasdaq & SP500 Close Below Resistance

Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

US stocks shrugged off earlier weakness and closed near their intraday highs as investors digested a flurry of headlines. Volume was reported mixed compared to Wednesday’s session; higher on the NYSE and lower on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 16 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 28 issues that appeared on the prior session. Decliners trailed advancers by approximately an 18-to-19 ratio on the NYSE but led by a 2-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but trailed on the Nasdaq exchange.

Investors Digest A Slew of Economic, Earnings & Political Data:

Investor’s digested a slew of data on Thursday: JP Morgan (JPM +0.27%) and Google (GOOG +0.55%) reported their latest quarterly result, weekly jobless claims and producer prices fell, Goldman Sachs (GS +4.43%) settled with the SEC for $550 million, BP (BP +7.57%) plugged the broken well, the Senate sent President Obama the largest financial regulatory bill since the Great Depression, and the latest read on the manufacturing industry was dismal. However, it was somewhat encouraging to see the market shrug off earlier weakness and close near its intraday highs even though the Nasdaq composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a 7-day winning streak. It is important to note that both the US dollar and the major averages ended lower on Thursday (in the recent past they tend to move in opposite directions).

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

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17 Jun
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Edge Higher After Retesting 200 DMA Line

Thursday, June 17, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

The major averages ended slightly higher as investors digested a slew of economic data and BP’s (BP) CEO spent the day testifying on Capital Hill. Volume totals were reported lower on both major exchanges, which signaled that large institutions were not aggressively selling stocks. Advancers were about even with decliners on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange as the major averages continued consolidating Tuesday’s large move. There were 22 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 35 issues that appeared on the prior session.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Investors Digest A Slew of Economic Data: Jobless Claims, CPI, & Leading Indicators:

Before Thursday’s opening bell, the Labor Department said US jobless claims rose to 472,000 last week and the consumer price index slid which helped allay inflation woes. After the bell, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to a 10-month low of 8, less than half the median estimate of Wall Street economists. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators in April edged down -0.1%, following a +1.3% increase in the prior month.

Stock Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

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27 May
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Jump As China Eases Debt Woes

Thursday, May 27, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks surged around the world after China said it remains a long-term investor in Europe which helped the euro snap a losing streak and China’s stock market to score a follow-through day (FTD). Volume totals were reported lower compared to Wednesday’s totals on both major exchanges while the indices ended unanimously higher.  Meanwhile advancers trumped decliners by over an 8-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and over an 6-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 9 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.netLeaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.netBreakOuts Page, higher than the 8 issues that appeared on Tuesday. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.  It is difficult for the market to mount a sustained rally without a healthy crop of strong leaders.

China Eases Debt Woes & Scores a FTD:

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18 Mar
Daily Market Commentary

Investors Digest A Slew Of Economic Data

Thursday, March 18, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages traded between positive and negative territory for most of the day after the dollar rose and investors digested a slew of economic data. Volume totals were reported lower on the Nasdaq exchange and on the NYSE compared to the prior session. Decliners led advancers by more than a 22-to-15 ratio on the NYSE and by a 5-to-4 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 46 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 77 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs again overwhelmingly trumped new lows on both exchanges.

Fed: To Raise, or Not To Raise, That Is The Question:

The dollar rallied after speculation increased that the Federal Reserve will raise its discount rate in the near future. The discount rate is the rate the Fed uses to charge banks for direct loans and was last raised after the market closed on Feb. 18, 2010. The Fed raised its discount rate by a quarter percentage point to +0.75% and said the move would encourage banks to rely more on money markets for short-term liquidity needs which would help stimulate the financial system.

Investors Digest A Slew of Economic Data:

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14 Jan
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Rally On Disconcerting Economic Data

Thursday, January, 14, 2010
Market Commentary:

Stocks edged higher after weaker than expected economic data was released. Volume was reported slightly higher than the prior session’s totals on the NYSE and about even on the Nasdaq exchange, which suggested large institutions were buying stocks. Advancers led decliners by nearly a 11-to-8 ratio on the NYSE and by a 16-to-11 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 28 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher than the total of 20 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs still solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.
ECB, Jobless Claims & Retail Sales:

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07 Jan
Daily Market Commentary

Nasdaq Retreats; Other Major Averages Advance

Thursday, January 7, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages ended mixed after positive retail sales and weekly jobless claims were released. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported about even to slightly higher than Wednesday’s totals which indicated large institutions were accumulating, not distributing, stocks. Advancers led decliners on both major exchanges which was a positive sign. There were 32 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the total of 57 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, and new lows were again near the single digits.

Jobless Claims:

At 8:30AM EST, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than forecast to +434,000 in the week of January 2, 2010. Every Thursday, the Labor Department releases the report which compiles data showing the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. Remember, the report is counter intuitive because an increasing number means more people are filing for unemployment claims and suggests the labor market is waning. The converse is also true, lower readings is a sign of strength. Investors tend to look at the four-week moving average because it smoothes out weekly volatility. Investors are now focused on December’s employment report which is slated to be released before Friday’s opening bell. Analysts believe that last month’s reading will be unchanged which bodes well for the ailing jobs market. So far, since the recession began, US employers slashed over 7 million jobs as the unemployment rate hit a two decade high of 10.2% in the fourth quarter.

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