Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: METALS-Copper rallies on stronger U.S. payrolls data

03 Aug

Reuters


Fri Aug 3, 2012 3:35pm EDT
* U.S. non-farm payrolls rise by 163,000 in July
    * Dollar falls vs euro; copper jumps over 1.5 pct
    * Copper open interest reflects lack of conviction
    By Chris Kelly and Susan Thomas
    NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Copper jumped by the most in three weeks on Friday after data showing U.S. employers hired more workers than expected
last month deflated the dollar and boosted prices of the red metal away from the bottom end of well-worn range.
    Copper rose alongside a 3 percent rally in crude oil and a late-week surge in equities after the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls rose 63,000 in
July, breaking three straight months of job gains below 100,000 and offering some hope for the ailing economy.
    But an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3 percent reminded investors of the still-fragile state of the world's largest economy and kept prospects of further
monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the table.
    "The noose ... (is) still around the Fed's neck and everybody is very cognizant of the fact that we could fall off the economic cliff any day," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.  London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rose $115, or 1.6 percent, to end at $7,445 a tonne, its biggest one-day gain since July 13, when
prices soared by nearly 2 percent.
    In New York, the COMEX September contract rose 7.70 cents, or 2.3 percent, to settle at $3.3675 per lb after dealing between $3.2985 and $3.3740.
    Since May, copper prices have been mired in a range between $7,200 and $7,800 in London and $3.25 and $3.60 in New York, pushed and pulled between a
waning global growth outlook and a tighter supply base and second-half Chinese demand prospects.
    "Although the numbers are decent, they're not so amazing that the Fed are going to turn around and say the economy is fine. It will take a long and
sustained period of improving data for the Fed to say that," said Guy Wolf, a macro strategist at Marex Spectron.
    "If we are moving into an environment where there is no more bad news, copper could get out of this range and move back towards $8,000. If people start
selling U.S. Treasuries, then that money will be seeking a home in places like base metals."
    The jobs report reduced demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar, which slipped against the euro and a basket of currencies. A weak dollar makes
commodities priced in the U.S. unit cheaper for holders of other currencies.
    A separate piece of data showed the pace of growth in the vast U.S. services sector edged up in July as new orders gained traction, but employment fell to
its lowest level in nearly a year.
    Gains in base metals were capped, however, by lingering concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone.
    On Thursday, commodity prices fell and copper hit six-week lows after ECB President Mario Draghi failed to offer immediate action to fix the euro zone
economy, which the market had expected to come via an announcement of large-scale bond purchases.
    "There were unwarranted expectations starting from last week of a decisive response by the monetary authorities, until yesterday when it became clear no
fireworks were coming. At least not yet," RBS strategist Nikos Kavalis said.
    ECB INACTION
    The ECB's inaction added to gloom over dismal manufacturing sector reports from China, Europe and the United States this week, with only a small gleam of
improvement seen in China's small- and medium-sized private sector companies.
    China is the world's top copper consumer, accounting for around 40 percent of global demand for the metal used in power and construction.
    "The Chinese growth outlook appears riddled with risk, with soft investment growth likely to weigh on commodities demand over coming quarters. Taken
together, metals demand is likely to remain restrained, which could keep prices at low levels in the near term, National Australia Bank said in a research note.
    Reflecting a lack of conviction about copper's short-term price direction, the open interest in the LME copper contract hovered around near-five-year lows
hit last week.
    LME three-month aluminium ended up $16 at $1,860 a tonne.
    ANZ sees potential for further losses to below $1,600 per tonne, which would add pressure on smelters suffering with thin or negative margins.
    Bosnia's only alumina plant had to halt production on Wednesday after the country's main gas distributor cut supplies because it could not pay its bills.
It resumed production on Thursday after agreeing to pay part of its debt.
 Metal Prices at 1848 GMT
  Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2011   Ytd Pct
                                                              move
  COMEX Cu       336.60        7.55     +2.29     343.60     -2.04
  LME Alum      1859.00       15.00     +0.81    2020.00     -7.97
  LME Cu        7442.00      112.00     +1.53    7600.00     -2.08
  LME Lead      1894.50       40.50     +2.18    2035.00     -6.90
  LME Nickel   15600.00      350.00     +2.30   18710.00    -16.62
  LME Tin      17895.00      465.00     +2.67   19200.00     -6.80
  LME Zinc      1839.00       27.00     +1.49    1845.00     -0.33
  SHFE Alu     15350.00       -5.00     -0.03   15845.00     -3.12
  SHFE Cu*     54300.00     -460.00     -0.84   55360.00     -1.91
  SHFE Zin     14550.00      -15.00     -0.10   14795.00     -1.66
 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
 * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
 SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/markets-metals-idUSL6E8J34EG20120803

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18 Apr
Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: Wall Street falls steeply with China, Greece fears paramount

(Reuters) – The S&P 500 posted its biggest percentage loss since March 25 on Friday as investors shunned risk amid new trading regulations in China, renewed worries about Greece running out of money, and tepid U.S. corporate earnings.
Selling followed sharp overseas stocks declines and was broad, with all 10 major S&P 500sectors losing ground.
Among the biggest drags, the S&P financials index was down 1.3 percent, with shares of Dow component American Express falling 4.4 percent to $77.32 after revenue missed analysts’ estimates, partly due to the currency impact.
The Dow and S&P 500 both snapped two weeks of gains. For the week, the Dow was down 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 down 1 percent and the Nasdaq down 1.3 percent.
Both Honeywell International and General Electric blamed the strong dollar for lower revenue. Shares of Honeywell were down 2.1 percent at $101.70, while GE shares were down 0.1 percent at $27.25.
China’s securities regulator warned investors to be cautious as Chinese shares hit seven-year highs. China allowed fund managers to lend stocks for short-selling and expanded the number of stocks investors can short.
China H-Share index futures fell 3.4 percent. Global equities lost ground as the weakness in China carried through to European and U.S. markets.
“We saw selling overseas, and that spilled over into the U.S. We’ve had a nice rally over the last few weeks to the upper half of the trading range, and it’s moving back over,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
“It’s still too early to tell what earnings are going to be for the quarter, but there haven’t been that many upside surprises. And that’s what we need to see.”
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 279.47 points, or 1.54 percent, to 17,826.3, the S&P 500 lost 23.81 points, or 1.13 percent, to 2,081.18 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 75.98 points, or 1.52 percent, to 4,931.81.
Market participants were also concerned Greece could leave the euro zone as it tries to reform its economy and deal with heavy debt. Greece dismissed reports it needed to tap remaining cash reserves to meet salary payments.
The U.S. earnings season has been mixed so far with more companies beating lowered expectations. The impact of the stronger dollar will be highlighted next week with quarterly reports from United Technologies Corp, Boeing and other top companies.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,458 to 596, for a 4.12-to-1 ratio; on the Nasdaq, 2,160 issues fell and 597 advanced, for a 3.62-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 43 new lows.
About 7.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, above the 6.2 billion daily average for the month to date, according to BATS Global Markets.
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/18/us-markets-stocks-usa-idUSKBN0N816320150418

16 Mar
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: COMMODITIES-Oil, copper, grains up as U.S. jobs data boosts demand outlook

ReutersThu Mar 14, 2013 6:14pm EDT
* Surprise drop in U.S. jobless claims lifts oil, stocks
    * U.S. crude gains on improving economic outlook after data
    * Wheat up for sixth session on robust livestock demand
    * Copper firms on healthier industrial demand prospects
    By Carole Vaporean
    NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - Most commodities rose on
Thursday, as stronger U.S. labor market data encouraged
investors about the outlook for demand for raw materials in the
world's largest economy.
    U.S. oil futures and London's benchmark Brent crude oil
prices settled higher, Brent's first rise after four sessions of
declines. Wheat, corn and copper also firmed after U.S. data
showed the number of Americans filing new claims for
unemployment benefits declined for a third straight week.
    But gold was down for most of the session, and other
precious metals slipped, with investors betting on riskier
assets in light of the improving demand outlook.
     "The positive economic data with the stronger-than-expected
jobless claims bodes well for risk-on assets-meaning stocks and
commodities--as the outlook for demand improves," said Adam
Sarhan, CEO at New York-based Sarhan Capital.
    Investors were surprised by the U.S. Labor Department data
showing a decline in unemployment claims. The news also boosted
U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones industrial average
extending its rally to 10 days in a row. (Full Story)
    "Every week that claims stay down, it confirms it's not an
anomaly, and this is pretty important," said Jack De Gan, chief
investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New
Hampshire. "The downward trend in jobless claims is, "one of the
reasons the market has been strong year to date," he said.
    The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a
bellwether for commodity prices, was 0.49 percent higher late in
the session, near the session high at 296. On Wednesday, the
session high for the gauge was its loftiest level since Feb. 20.
    U.S. oil futures rose to the highest settlement price in two
weeks, settling 51 cents higher at $93.03 per barrel.
Brent crude for April closed 90 cents per barrel higher,
or 0.83 percent, at $109.42 as the contract expired.
    "As long as we have signs that economic conditions are not
going to slow, we'll see improvement," said Gene McGillian,
analyst and broker with Tradition Energy in Stamford,
Connecticut.
    Stock market gains also helped support crude oil prices. The
United States is the world's largest energy consumer.
    While copper was helped by the sturdy jobs numbers, gold and
other precious metals were pressured by sellers seeking higher
yields in other commodity markets and in equities.
    April benchmark gold futures in New York eked out
small gains of $2.30 at $1,590.70 an ounce at the end, but were
lower for most of the session along with silver and platinum
group metals.
    COMEX March copper futures added 0.4 percent to
settle at $3.5235 per lb.
    The healthier jobs data pulled the dollar up, which limited
gains of many dollar-denominated commodities. But by the close,
the U.S. currency slipped off the seven-month high it achieved
earlier against a basket of currencies, helped by a narrower
U.S. current account deficit.
    U.S. wheat futures rose for a sixth straight session on
robust demand from domestic livestock feeders and exporters,
which booked their biggest weekly sales in two years last week.
    Corn prices climbed for the fifth time in six sessions,
supported by concerns about tight old-crop supplies and a weaker
U.S. dollar, which makes the grain more competitive on the world
market. But, Soybeans fell for a third straight session on South
American harvest pressure and concerns about slowing import
demand from top buyer China.
 Prices at 4:59 p.m. EST (2059 GMT)
                             LAST/      NET    PCT     YTD
                             CLOSE      CHG    CHG     CHG
 US crude                    93.22     0.70   0.8%    1.5%
 Brent crude                109.47     0.95   0.9%   -1.5%
 Natural gas                 3.812    0.132   3.6%   13.8%
 US gold                   1590.70     2.30   0.1%   -5.1%
 Gold                      1589.88     2.59   0.2%   -5.0%
 US Copper                  352.35     1.40   0.4%   -3.5%
 LME Copper                7800.00    12.50   0.2%   -1.7%
 Dollar                     82.591   -0.308  -0.4%    7.6%
 US corn                    732.75    -8.50  -1.2%    4.9%
 US soybeans               1457.25   -17.75  -1.2%    2.7%
 US wheat                   714.25     7.00   1.0%   -8.2%
 US Coffee                  139.65    -0.95  -0.7%   -2.9%
 US Cocoa                  2130.00   -17.00  -0.8%   -4.7%
 US Sugar                    18.84     0.04   0.2%   -3.4%
 US silver                  28.807   -0.151  -0.5%   -4.7%
 US platinum               1589.80    -3.30  -0.2%    3.3%
 US palladium               770.75    -0.50  -0.1%    9.6%
01 Sep
Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: Copper caps worst monthly loss since June 2010

Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:41pm EDT

  * London copper breaks above 200-day moving average

 * COMEX copper still eyes death cross technical barrier
 * Labour talks continue at Vale's Canadian nickel ops
 * Coming up: China/U.S. manufacturing data Thurs.
 (Rewrites, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing copper price, adds
graphic and analyst comments)
 By Chris Kelly and Melanie Burton
 NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Copper capped its worst monthly performance in more than a
year with a firmer close on Wednesday, as concerns about tightening supply and upbeat U.S. data
steered the rally.
 Losses in the base metals complex piled up in August, with aluminum CMAL3 posting its weakest
performance since May 2010, zinc's CMZN3 weakest since November 2010, and tin's CMSN3 greatest
monthly loss since October 2008.
 But the selling pressures came to a halt on the last day of the month Wednesday, with technical
momentum and supply-side restraints fueling gains in copper.
 "It is very much a case of refocusing on fundamentals. We had an awful Chilean production
report which highlights the challenges the industry faces in trying to grow supply this year," said
Gayle Berry, analyst at Barcap. [ID:nN1E77T0BQ]
 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-month delivery CMCU3 broke above its 200-day
moving average at $9,286 a tonne at one point, before ending at $9,275, up $115 on the day.
 In New York, the key December COMEX contract HGZ1 jumped 6.30 cents or 1.5 percent to settle
at $4.2045 per lb.
 It too received a technical boost with an earlier breach of its 100-day moving average at
$4.2092.
 But analysts said the move lacked conviction and a greater technical barrier stood in its way.
 "I still think there is still some work to be done," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
 "We are seeing a light-volume bounce up to a logical area of resistance ... there is also the issue of a death cross, which bodes poorly for the near-term outlook."
 A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average sinks below, or crosses over, its 200-day moving average.
 (Graphic: link.reuters.com/puk53s )
 "As long as copper stays below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, the bears remain in control."
 Total copper trading volumes in New York reached about 29,000 lots -- more than 40 percent
below the 30-day average, according to preliminary data from Thomson Reuters.
 Copper received a boost from a report that the U.S. private sector added 91,000 jobs in August
while an index of factory activity in the U.S. Midwest in August and U.S. July factory orders were
better than expected. [ID:nN9E7H701V]
 "There are still a number of question marks when it comes to the macro outlook and there still
could be a lot of fear-driven weakness in prices ahead," Berry said.
 "The next month is going to be interesting because that is when seasonally you would expect
buyers to start returning to the market again so we should get a feel for how much of an impact the
slower economic data is having on actual metal fundamentals."
 Premiums for bonded copper in Shanghai have fallen more than 10 percent from last week due to
poor arbitrage and reduced demand for spot metal in the domestic market, marking the first fall in
premium since July, traders said on Wednesday.[ID:nL4E7JV1M0]
 NICKEL TALKS
 In nickel, labour talks appear to be going smoothly at Vale's (VALE5.SA) Thompson mining,
smelting and refining complex in Manitoba, Canada where the current contract expires in
mid-September.
 "Talks continue in Thompson and we remain committed to reaching a deal," a Vale spokesman told
Reuters.
 Thompson has the capacity to produce around 60,000 tonnes a year of refined nickel, according
to Reuters Metal Production Database.
 Nickel CMNI3 ended up $25 at $22,200 a tonne.
 Metals database here
 Global metal stocks link.reuters.com/deg67n
 LME stocks vs prices r.reuters.com/hub62s
 Metal Prices at 1826 GMT
 COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
                                                         move
 COMEX Cu       420.20        6.05     +1.46     444.70     -5.51
 LME Alum      2469.00       44.00     +1.81    2470.00     -0.04
 LME Cu        9274.00      114.00     +1.24    9600.00     -3.40
 LME Lead      2578.00       20.00     +0.78    2550.00      1.10
 LME Nickel   22200.00      250.00     +1.14   24750.00    -10.30
 LME Tin      24400.00      400.00     +1.67   26900.00     -9.29
 LME Zinc      2291.50        6.50     +0.28    2454.00     -6.62
 SHFE Alu     17470.00       25.00     +0.14   16840.00      3.74
 SHFE Cu*     68360.00      110.00     +0.16   71850.00     -4.86
 SHFE Zin     17360.00       45.00     +0.26   19475.00    -10.86
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Harpreet Bhal in London and Euan Rocha in Toronto; Editing by Alison
Birrane;editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)
URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/31/markets-metals-idUSL5E7JV0P420110831
14 Oct
Blog

Follow The Yellow Brick Road!

My very first blog post. I have to tell you I’ve been looking forward to this for awhile now. I think the best way to begin my blogging career is to start with a brief introduction of who I am, what I do, and why I have decided to join the blogging and social media worlds. I’ve made a conscious decision to fully embrace the social media ethos and I look forward to blogging frequently as well as sharing all sorts of great content with you, my readers.
My name is Adam Sarhan and I am the founder and CEO of Sarhan Capital, a boutique investment firm created in 2004. I’ve spent the last few years developing a suite of market-based services for both individual and institutional investors. All our work is based on our objective market research: The Sarhan Analysis, TrendScreener and AS Analysis- our custom research product. I am very proud of all our work and look forward to sharing much of it with you. If you want more information on any of our services, please visit our Store.
I’ve spent the better part of the last decade honing my financial acumen, developing a method of trading the markets that has consistently outperformed the major benchmark averages, both for myself and my clients. At the urging of my clients and colleagues, I set out to codify my trading strategies, the result of which was a weekly global macro note, The Sarhan Analysis.
As a person who knows how it feels to start from nothing, it is my sincere desire to see The Sarhan Analysis widely distributed and employed to help other people succeed. I have faith in the product and work hard everyday to ensure that we always provide objective market analysis.

My Trading Philosophy

Since early on in my career, I have always had a clear understanding and strong respect for market psychology and risk. It is my belief that it is a failure to properly comprehend both concepts that hinders most people’s ability to succeed. That said, my goal is to teach people how to accurately apportion both factors into their portfolios. But I also know that people are inherently stubborn when it comes to trading, and that discipline is often the first thing that goes out the window when people have money on the line. Emotions trump reason and that is why in early 2009, I developed Sarhan Live – a proprietary online psychological and risk assessment tool, and made it available to the public. It is my hope that with this tool, coupled with my unique market analysis, one can succeed where others fail by developing a well thought out trading system and specific investment goals.

So What Are My Goals?

It would hypocritical of me to urge you to illustrate your goals without doing the same. So in the interest of transparency, a golden rule of social media success, I will elucidate my goals with this blog.
My goals are to tell you about me, to tell you my story, my successes, my failures and teach you what I know about capital markets. My goals are to share with you my knowledge and experiences in the market, and to do so in a colloquial and easy to follow fashion. I want my posts here to be instructive and educational to the beginning trader as well as sophisticated enough to appeal to experienced investors. The truth is that good market analysis and a clear articulation of that analysis is always in demand.
I have created several services that may or may not be conducive for you at this point in time, but even if you don’t become a customer, you’ll still find a wealth of education available on this blog and a good place to come visit for the latest in both technical and fundamental market analysis. In my opinion, one needs to look at both technical and fundamental indicators in order to be a successful trader, leaving one out is like trying to play tennis with one hand tied behind your back! So I hope you’ll come visit often, add me to your RSS, connect with me on twitter and facebook, tell your friends and family about this site and if you have any questions or comments, please leave them for me. I hope to create a warm and healthy dialogue with you going forward.