06 Oct
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks Start Fourth Quarter With A Bang!

Strong Start To Q4

The S&P has closed at a record high six straight days which is its longest run of the millennium (since 1997)! Stocks rallied sharply last week as the bulls remain in clear control of this market. At this point, the market is now extended (in the short term) and remains very strong. It is important to keep in mind that the fourth quarter tends to be a seasonally strong period for the market and that means we can easily head much higher over the next few months. In the short term, I would be remiss not to note that the market is extended to the upside and due to pullback. Underneath the surface, the action remains picture perfect as the great mini-rotation remains alive and well. Until we see any formidable selling, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. Remember, in strong bull markets (present market included), weakness should be bought, not sold.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday which marked the first trading day of the fourth quarter. Financials and health care stocks led the market higher which bodes well for the broader averages. The world woke up to the horrific news out of Las Vegas. The mass shooting sent several big casino stocks lower on Monday as they will have to rethink security in large public places. Separately, economic data was light, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.8 in September which was the highest read since May 2004. Stocks rallied on Tuesday as buying continued apace. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time this year which is largely expected to happen in December. The Fed already raised rates twice this year and said several times they plan to raise rates 3 times. Stocks rallied again on Wednesday helping the benchmark S&P 500 to have its longest winning streak since May. Economic data was mixed, ADP and Moody’s said private employers added 135,000 new jobs in September, beating the Street’s estimate for 125,000. Separately, the ISM non-manufacturing index, hit 59.8 in September and easily beat the Street’s estimate for 55.5.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday helping the S&P 500 to enjoy its first 8-day winning streak since 2013. The big news on Thursday came from D.C., the House passed a $4.1 trillion budget which is the first major step toward tax reform. Last week, the GOP said they want to lower corporate taxes to 20% from 35%. If that bill passes that will be a big boost the U.S. (and global) economy. Stocks were quiet on Friday as the market paused to digest a very strong rally. Separately, the Labor Department said U.S. employers shed 33k jobs in September as the country suffered from two major hurricanes.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

03 Oct
Media Quotes

Reuters Asks Adam About The Stock Market Hitting New Record Highs

10.3.17
(Reuters) – All the three U.S. stock indexes touched fresh record highs on Tuesday, driven by gains in Ford Motor (F.N) and General Motors (GM.N) after the carmakers reported strong monthly sales data.

The rise in Ford and General Motors helped lift the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary .SPLRCD sector.

Analysts had forecast September auto sales to be the highest in 2017, largely due to Americans in hurricane-ravaged cities replacing their damaged vehicles.

However, the market traded in a narrow range as investors awaited the upcoming earnings from big names to help justify the lofty valuations.

Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to increase 6.2 percent from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters research, after rising a better-than-expected 12.3 percent in the second quarter.

U.S. stocks started the fourth quarter on a strong note on Monday after factory data pointed to underlying strength in the economy.

The encouraging data helped world shares touch their latest record highs on Tuesday, while lifting the dollar to its loftiest in 1-1/2 months.

“This year has been one of the strongest year ever, not from a percent gain standpoint, but from a lack of the correction or lack of a pullback,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York.

“So to me, the market is cautiously optimistic.”

Investors are also watching out for progress on President Donald Trump’s tax reform plan, which calls for lowering corporate tax to 20 percent.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Tuesday that the odds of getting a tax plan passed are higher than what most people expect, but expressed uncertainty over the reforms.

Seven of the 11 major S&P indexes were higher on Tuesday, led by technology .SPLRCT, healthcare .SPXHC and consumer discretionary.

At 9:45 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 28.34 points, or 0.13 percent, at 22,585.94, while the S&P 500 .SPX was up 0.23 points, or 0.01 percent, at 2,529.35.

The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC was up 5.61 points, or 0.09 percent, at 6,522.33.

Shares in Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) were down 2 percent after the luxury electric vehicle maker said its planned ramp-up for the new Model 3 mass-market sedan faced production bottlenecks.

Lennar Corp’s (LEN.N) shares rose about 2 percent following a higher-than-expected quarterly profit from the No.2 U.S. homebuilder. Tile Shop Holding’s shares (TTS.O) plunged 30 percent after the natural stone retailer scrapped its 2017 forecast.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,278 to 1,265. On the Nasdaq, 1,314 issues rose and 1,069 fell.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-hits-another-record-high-ford-gm-higher-idUSKCN1C818E

29 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Week, Month, and Quarter Higher

Stocks End Week, Month, and Quarter Higher

Stocks ended the week, month, and quarter higher as the bulls remain in clear control of the market. The great mini-rotation, a term I coined a few years ago, remains alive and well. The great mini-rotation refers to a bullish event that happens when big money rotates from one out-performing sector to another under-performing sector without the market moving lower. We saw this take place in the second half of the third quarter: big money rotated out of high beta-growth stocks and into under-performing areas of the market such as the small-cap Russell 2000 and the DJ Transportation index. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average continue trading near/at record highs. At this point, the market remains very strong and the fourth quarter tends to be a seasonally strong period for the market.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks fell on Monday after North Korea said the U.S. declared war by flying military planes over the weekend. The White House responded and said the U.S. did not declare war and that claim was “absurd.” Separately, the Nasdaq fell hard in the morning – led lower by the several high profile tech stocks. Shares of Facebook, Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google all fell hard on heavy turnover but the Nasdaq and several of these stocks turned around in the middle of the day as buyers showed up and bought the latest “dip”. Stocks bounced on Tuesday after Janet Yellen was dovish again and basically said easy money is here to stay (for now). Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech on Tuesday and said the Fed may have made a mistake assessing the health of the labor market and misjudged the rate of inflation. Dr. Yellen also made the case for a gradual pace of adjustments in the face of “significant uncertainties.” Yellen also said, the Fed should be “wary of moving too gradually.” Stocks edged higher on Wednesday after the GOP announced it’s plan to slash taxes.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday after GDP came in at 3.1%, matching estimates. The small-cap Russell 2000 hit a fresh record  high, leading the other indices. Stocks were quiet on Friday on the last trading day of the third quarter as several of the popular indices hit fresh record highs.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

22 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Busy Week Mixed

Stocks End Busy Week Mixed

Stocks ended mixed last week as investors digested a slew of data. First, global central banks sent mixed messages as the U.S. Fed was perceived to be slightly hawkish while Japan’s Central Bank was overtly dovish. Earnings were less than thrilling as most of the stocks that reported last week fell in heavy volume. Additionally, geopolitical tensions remained escalated as the rhetoric continued between North Korea and D.C. The German election is scheduled for Sunday and next week will be important as investors will be looking for: GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment and some Housing data. Technically, the Nasdaq 100 is trading near its 50 day moving average while the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are above that important level of support.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday as investors waited for a busy week of economic and earnings, and central bank data. The VIX (a.k.a the volatility index) fell below 10 which is a very low reading. Stocks edged higher on Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day meeting and President Trump gave a speech at the United Nations. Trump was very clear that he would not tolerate further aggression from N. Korea. Economic data was decent, housing starts came in at 1.180 million, beating estimates for 1.173 million. Stocks were quiet on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, said it will begin unwinding its massive balance sheet in October, and it plans to raise rates in December. Elsewhere, existing home sales came in at 5.350M, missing estimates for 5.480M.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks fell on Thursday, led lower by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 fell to its 50 DMA line which is a logical area of support. Leading indicators grew by +0.4%, beating estimates for a gain of +0.2%. Stocks were quiet on Friday as tensions remained high between N. Korea and the D.C. Separately, the new iPhone went on sale today but Apple’s stock remained under pressure. Going into the weekend, the market will be watching the German election and will be watching to see if North Korea will fire another missile.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

15 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks Hit Fresh Record Highs

Stocks Hit Fresh Record Highs

Stocks rallied sharply last week after the damage from hurricane Irma was much less than originally expected. Thankfully, in the 11th hour, Irma weakened considerably, made a last-minute turn, and skated up the west coast of Florida. The Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell all ended the week higher as investors continued to shrug off all negative news and bid stocks higher. The market looks very strong and the fact that it refuses to fall, even on bearish headlines, is a bullish sign. Last week, North Korea fired another missile over Japan, Retail Sales missed estimates and inflation came in higher than expected, but stocks rallied. That reiterates an important point- that it’s not the news that matters, but how the market reacts to the news. Until, we see any signs of weakness, the bulls remain in clear control.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday as the country remembered 9/11 and the market breathed a collective sigh of relief that Hurricane Irma weakened considerably and the damage was much less than expected. The market was also happy to see that North Korea did not fire another missile over the weekend. In China, inflation picked up after the producer-price index rose to 6.3% in August, beating the Street’s estimate for a gain of 5.5%. The stronger-than-expected reading came after Beijing announced new policies aimed at limiting capital outflows and continued pressure on crypto-currencies by banning them entirely from exchanges, while allowing over-the-counter trading to continue. Stocks edged higher on Tuesday as buyers continued to buy the latest dip. On Wednesday, the producer price index came in at +0.2%, missing estimates for +0.3%. North Korea decided to fire another missile over Japan which initially sent stock futures lower but then buyers showed up and stocks quickly recovered.

Thur & Fri Action:

Before Thursday’s open, the government said, the consumer price index came in higher than expected which was another sign that inflation may be increasing. Remember, higher inflation may put pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates. Stocks rallied on Friday even after retail sales came in at negative -0.2%, missing estimates for a gain of +0.1%.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

08 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks Quiet Ahead Of The Hurricane

Stocks Quiet Ahead Of The Hurricane

The stock market remains very strong. The major indices slid last week but were quiet as the country waits for Hurricane Irma to hit Florida. and parts of the East Coast. Stepping back, the action remains healthy as the market continues to trade just below record highs and sellers remain at bay. From where I sit, the market action remains bullish. The fact that the market refuses to fall in any significant fashion illustrates how strong the bulls are right now. Additionally, it is bullish to see volume dry up as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq sit on their respective 50 day moving average lines. It is important to note that the Transports and the small-cap Russell 2000 continue to under-perform their peers which is not ideal. Stepping back, until we see any heavy volume selling, the bulls remain in clear control.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day Holiday. Stocks fell hard on Tuesday tensions spread regarding North Korea firing another missile. In the U.S., Factory Orders fell -3.3%, missing estimates for a decline of -3.2%. Stocks bounced back on Wednesday after the bulls showed up and defended the 50 DMA line for the Dow and S&P 500. Politically, two top Democratic leaders said they would support President Trump’s debt ceiling extension and government funding plan. Separately, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer resigned due to personal reasons. Economic data was mixed. The PMI services index came in at 56, missing estimates for 56.9. Separately, the ISM non-manufacturing index came in at 55.3, missing estimates for 55.8. The Fed’s Beige Book came out and showed Modest to moderate economic growth and offered a different assessment on the impact of Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the market shifted its focus to Hurricane Irma. Sir Richard Branson survived the Hurricane holed up in his concrete wine cellar.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks were relatively quiet on Thursday and Friday as millions of people left Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma. The price of Bitcoin plunged after China’s Central Bank may shut down the exchanges. Shares of Target fell after the retail giant said it will slash prices on a lot of items in an attempt to attract shoppers. Shares of Equifax (EFX) plunged over 13% on Friday after the company had a massive data breach which could impact 140 million people.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

01 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Bulls Back In The Driver's Seat

Bulls Back In The Driver’s Seat

The stock market remains exceptionally strong. Once again, the latest pullback was another strong buying opportunity. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and benchmark S&P 500 are all back above near-term support and, once again, flirting with new highs. This was another shallow/healthy pullback in both size (small percent decline) and scope (short in duration). Meanwhile, the two lagging areas: The Transports and the small-cap Russell 2000 both pulled back and found support near their respective longer term 200 DMA lines. Now they are flirting with their 50 DMA lines. When you step back and look at the bigger trend, the market remains exceptionally strong. Remember, in a very strong bull market (present market included), weakness should be bought, not sold. Going forward, August’s low is near term support and the bulls remain in clear control until that level is broken.

Mon-Wed Action:

Energy stocks, specifically, refinery stocks, lifted the market higher on Monday as Hurricane Harvey flooded Houston and the surrounding areas. RBOB gasoline futures soared nearly 7% on Monday alone and continued to rally all week. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in at 17.0, slightly higher than the Street’s estimate for 15. After Monday’s close, North Korea fired a missile over Japan and that lead futures to fall sharply overnight. On Tuesday, stocks opened lower but closed higher which was a net positive and set the stage for the market to rally for the rest of the week. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi indices both closed off their lows which was a subtle, but important, sign of strength. On the economic front, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index grew by only +0.1%, missing estimates for a gain of +0.3%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence came in at 122.9, beating estimates for 120.6. Stocks rallied on Wednesday helping the S&P 500 jump back above its 50 DMA line. Technically, that was a very  healthy sign. The ADP employment report showed private employers added 237k new jobs in August, beating estimates for 185k. Separately, GDP came in at 3%, beating estimates for 2.8% and that helps support the claim that the economy will grow better under President Trump.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday as the narrative shifted in D.C. to a tax cut. Chicago PMI came in at 58.9, slightly higher than the average estimate of missing estimates of 58.6. Meanwhile, Pending Home Sales fell by -0.8%, missing estimates for again of +0.4%. Before Friday’s open, the Labor Department said, U.S. employers added 156,000 new jobs in August, missing estimates for 180,000. Meanwhile, unemployment rate came in at 4.4%, missing estimates for 4.3%.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

31 Aug
Media Quotes

CNBC Asks Adam About The Stock Market On The Last Day Of August

US stocks rise as Wall Street tries to end August on a high note
Thursday, August 31, 2017

  • Wall Street has dealt with different issues throughout the month.
  • Yet stocks were on track for a steady monthly performance.

U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday, the last trading day of the month, as Wall Street tried to end August on a high note. Investors also digested a broad swath of economic data ahead of a key employment report.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75 points, with UnitedHealth contributing the most to the gains. The S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent, with health care leading all sectors higher. The Nasdaq compositeadvanced 0.6 percent.
Wall Street has dealt with different issues throughout the month, including political uncertainty, geopolitical tension and a storm that ravaged Houston and other parts of South Texas. Yet stocks were on track for a steady monthly performance.
Entering Thursday’s session, the Dow was on track for a marginal monthly gain, while the Nasdaq composite was up 0.3 percent in August. The S&P was on track for a slight loss, however, and was set to snap a four-month winning streak.
Aug. 21 “marked a near-term low for the market and stocks have bounced back from it. Two days ago, we also saw another near-term low that the market rebounded from,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. “Investors are now looking for clues as to where does the market go from here.”
Investors also digested key economic data released Thursday.
Weekly jobless claims totaled 236,000, matching estimates, while the so-called core personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4 percent in July on a year-over-year basis, the smallest gain since December 2015. The core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and it’s lagging the central bank’s 2 percent target.
“The headline inflationary figures, which include swings in energy costs, should soar for September; however, this jump will prove ephemeral and will not impact the Fed’s preferred gauge of pricing pressures,” said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities.
Treasury yields fell after the inflation data were released. The benchmark 10-year note yield traded at 2.138 percent, while the two-year yield slipped to 1.33 percent.
Other economic data released Thursday included pending home sales, which fell 0.8 percent in June. The data deluge comes a day ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Overseas, stocks got a boost from strong economic data. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index rose nearly 1 percent after euro zone inflation hit 1.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in August, marking the highest rate in four months. Asian stocks closed mostly higher overnight after China’s official manufacturing PMI topped expectations.
The positive overseas data followed strong economic numbers out of the U.S. On Wednesday, the U.S. government said the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0 percent on an annualized basis, above the expected gain rate of 2.7 percent.
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/31/us-stocks-august-economy.html

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