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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. No current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals, and economic conditions may materially alter the performance of your portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.There can be no assurances that a strategy will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Past performance does not guarantee future investment success. 50 Park Capital,LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Investing and Trading capital markets and/or using margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Our mission is to help our clients achieve their investment goals.
09
Feb
The Rules Change In A Bear Market
Protect Yourself During
This Bear Market –
Open An Account
With Sarhan Capital Today
I’m operating with the notion that we are in the early stages of a new bear market (and global recession). My longstanding readers know I first turned defensive (here) on equities in early August 2015 (before the big August crash). In the short term, the action remains lousy on Wall Street (to put it nicely). The major indices continue to break down and several key stocks broke down badly after reporting earnings ($GOOG, $ICE, $LNKD, $DATA, $RL, just to name a few causalities from last week). I’m often asked, how do you navigate a bear market?
First, cash is a position for those of you who don’t want to deal with the nauseating moves that occur during bear markets. Second, for those of you who want to play, keep in mind, the rules change in a bear market. Keep in mind: markets move in cycles. There are only three things any asset (stock, bond, currency, commodity, real-estate etc) can do: move up, down or sideways. In uptrends, conventional wisdom tells us to buy low and sell high. Or buy high and sell higher (for those of you who like to buy breakouts). You have also probably heard the old adage about buy the dip and sell the rip. I can go on and on but you all know the “rules” in a bull market.
Put simply, the rules are reversed in a bear market. Instead of buying the dip, you sell the rip. Meaning, if you are looking for tactical trades, look to short strength, not buy weakness. Instead of buying pullbacks into logical areas of support (prior chart highs, 50 Day Moving Average line – or other moving averages- etc etc) look to short strength into logical areas of resistance (prior chart lows, 50 Day Moving Average line, etc etc). The list goes on and on but the important thing to keep in mind is that emotions rule in bear markets and the swings can be VERY erratic, both up and down. Also it is important to note that every bear market in history was followed by a fabulous bull market. So patience is and can be your best friend. Finally, keep in mind the largest moves (both up and down) happen in bear markets.
“Always keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.” – Adam Sarhan
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23
Jan
FLS Update: A Near Term Low – Originally published Wednesday -The Exact Low Of The Week
Here is The Intra-Week Update That Was Sent on Wednesday – The EXACT Low of the week. Market Update:
Barring another wave of massive selling, it appears the market is trying to put in a near term low today and it looks like stocks are ready to bounce from their deeply oversold levels. So far, every rally attempt this year has lasted a few hours only to be met with aggressive selling followed by new lows. We’ll see if the bounce can last longer this time. Earlier today, the Dow Industrial Average tanked 565 points as oil plunged over 6% to $27 a barrel (lowest level since 2003!). Around noon EST, the buyers showed up (and a lot of short covering) and stocks soared. The Dow jumped 100 points in a matter of minutes and the buying continued well into the afternoon. That was it. Markets are ripe to bounce from here as they remain Extremely oversold in the near term. We want to see where the market closes on Friday and will have a full report for you this weekend. For now, suffice it to say as long as today’s lows hold, we have to expect a nice “bounce” from here. Remember, markets do not go straight down. With headlines like this crossing the tape and speak of a “Depression” from Davos this morning from a very famous investor, the market was way overdue to bounce. The key now is to analyze the health of this bounce (if the market can bounce).
NYSE LOWS LARGEST NUMBER SINCE AUGUST 8, 2011 WHEN 1,345 STOCKS MADE FRESH LOWS
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31
Dec
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Nov
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24
Nov
GDP vs S&P 500 With Rates At Zero
For the longest time we have made the case that Wall Street is ready for a rate hike but Main Street is not. The following chart, courtesy of our friends at Reuters/Eikon, shows how the S&P 500 has surged since 2009 but GDP has yet to “take-off.”