CNBC Asks Adam About The New Fed Chair

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Stocks gyrate as Wall Street digs through details of tax reform bill

  • The S&P 500 traded off its lows as a sharp gain in the financials sector helped the index pare earlier losses.
  • The plan would cut mortgage interest deductions in half. However, it would keep retirement savings plans like the popular 401(k) intact.
U.S. equities gyrated on Thursday as investors examined the details of the tax-reform plan proposed by Republicans.
The plan would permanently lower the corporate tax rate to 20 percent. It would also keep retirement savings plans like the popular 401(k) intact.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded 31 points higher after briefly falling 84 points. Shares of Travelers were the best-performers on the 30-stock index.
“People are building their frameworks, but no one knows where this is going to go,” said Jeremy Bryan, portfolio manager at Gradient Investments.
The S&P 500 traded off its lows as a sharp gain in the financials sector helped the index pare earlier losses. Shares of Allstate were among the best-performing stocks in the financials sector.
Shares of T. Rowe Price, meanwhile, jumped to trade 1.7 percent higher as asset managers reacted positively to the 401(k) news.
Symbol
Name
Price
Change
%Change
DJIADow Jones Industrial Average23457.59
22.580.10%
S&P 500S&P 500 Index2574.64
-4.72-0.18%
NASDAQNASDAQ Composite6707.79
-8.75-0.13%
Yet, the plan would also cut mortgage interest deductions in half and then hit homebuilder and consumer-related shares. Also, it lowers the tax rate on repatriated cash to 12 percent.
Homebuilder stocks took a hit, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders exchange-traded fund (XHB) sliding 2.4 percent. Shares of Toll Brothers fell 5.6 percent, while M.D.C. Holdings pulled back 10.2 percent.
The Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1 percent as tech investors were left disappointed with the 12 percent rate on repatriated cash. A lot of big tech companies have scores of cash outside of the U.S.
“The market sees this as a disadvantage to consumption in favor of more long-term investments,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “Consumption is a short-term endeavor while investment is more long-term.”
The full bill was released Thursday morning. President Donald Trump touted this as “the biggest tax event in the history of our country” on Tuesday.
“Nothing is easy, however, and there is still tension over what tax provisions can be limited or eliminated to offset aggressive cuts in marginal corporate and personal rates. A balance will need to be struck,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.
The increasing prospects of tax reform have recently helped U.S. stocks reach record levels.
Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said “the market still doesn’t believe tax reform will get done this year,” however. “There are too many Senate Republicans that are not behind this plan.”
Top White House economic advisor Gary Cohn said Trump would support the bill so long as it preserves key elements.
Investors also awaited to see who will be the next Fed chair. Trump is expected to make his announcement later on Thursday, with most expecting the president to tap Fed Governor Jerome Powell for the position.
“Powell is dovish. The current Fed chair, Janet Yellen, is dovish. I think the market has priced in a dovish Fed chair,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. “Central banks are slowly raising rates, but they are still very low relative to historical levels.”
Wall Street also kept an eye on earnings after tech giant Facebook posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Facebook reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.59, well above the expected $1.28.
Companies set to report Thursday after the bell include Apple, Starbucks and CBS.
Overall, earnings have mostly outperformed expectations this season, adding to the stock market’s already strong gains for the year. As of Thursday morning, nearly 74 percent of the companies that have reported have surpassed earnings expectations, according to FactSet.

LINK: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/02/us-stocks-fed-chair-tax-reform.html

Week-In-Review: Stocks Rally On Healthy Earnings and Economic Data

Stocks Rally On Healthy Earnings and Economic Data

It was another solid week on Wall Street as investors digested a slew of earnings and economic data. The major indices overcame a mid-week sell-off and ended higher after several well-known tech stocks reported strong numbers and GDP beat estimates. Buyers showed up on Friday after: Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft were some of the well-known stocks to report strong numbers last week. On the economic front, GDP grew by 3% last quarter, beating the Street’s estimate for a gain of +2.5%. The major indices continue acting very well and the fact that they refuse to pullback in a meaningful fashion continues to illustrate how strong the bulls are right now.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks fell on Monday as the Dow snapped a 6-day winning streak and GE posted its largest single day decline in 6 years. Hasbro (HAS) also gapped down after reporting disappointing numbers. On Tuesday, the Dow rallied 168 points after the latest round of earnings were released. Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM) and McDonald’s (MCD) were some of the stocks that rallied after reporting solid numbers. On Wednesday, The Dow fell 112 points which was the largest single day decline since September 5, 2017. Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) plunged nearly 14% after reporting earnings.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday after the latest round of earnings were announced. Twitter’s (TWTR) stock soared nearly 19% after reporting earnings. Ford (F) was another big winner after reporting earnings. After the close, a slew of big tech stocks reported numbers and mostly beat estimates. On Friday, the Nasdaq enjoyed its largest single day rally since the Nov 2016 election! Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INCT), and Microsoft (MSFT) were some of the big tech stocks that gapped up after reporting earnings. On the economic front, GDP grew by 3% last quarter, easily beating the Street’s estimate for a gain of 2.5%.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Running

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks Soar On Earnings & Tax Optimism

Stocks Race Higher As Earnings Season Kicks

Stocks soared last week on renewed hope of a tax cut and the vast majority of earnings (that were announced) beat estimates. The market went from being extended to being very extended as buyers continued to show up and aggressively accumulate stocks. From any normal perspective, the market is way over due to pullback but the fact that it refuses to pullback illustrates how strong the bulls are right now. In fact, the largest decline in the S&P 500 has only been -3% in the past year, which is extremely shallow on a historical perspective. Eventually, the market will decline but until it does, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. Just keep in mind, in the short-term, we are way over due to pullback.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday as investors waited for a slew of earnings to be released this week. After the bell Netflix reported earnings and before Tuesday’s open Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both reported earnings, among a slew of other companies. Crude oil jumped on geo-political tensions in parts of Iraq. Separately, the GOP is pushing hard to get a tax cut done later this year. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed above 23,000 for the first time. The index first closed above 22,000 on Aug. 2. UnitedHealth, Johnson and Johnson, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were some of the well-known stocks that reported earnings on Tuesday.
Stocks soared on Wednesday as buyers continued to send stocks racing higher. IBM was the big name stock that gapped up after reporting earnings. In D.C, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pushed hard for the tax reform to get passed and said the stock market will see a “significant” drop if tax reform is not passed. Mnuchin said, “There is no question that the rally in the stock market has baked into it reasonably high expectations of us getting tax cuts and tax reform done.”

Thur & Fri Action:

Thursday marked the 30 year anniversary of the Oct 19, 1987 crash. Just to put that crash in perspective the Dow plunged 508 points or 22.6% in one day. That would roughly equal 5,000 points today! Overnight, Hong Kong stocks fell -2% which triggered a wave of selling in thinly traded overnight futures markets. Before Thursday’s open, Dow futures were down triple digits but the Dow barely lost ground by the close. Shares of Apple (AAPL) gapped down after a report was released that sales of the iPhone 8 was weaker than expected. Stocks soared on Friday as hope spread on the tax cut.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks Perched Near Record Highs As Earnings Season Begins

Stocks Perched Near Record Highs As Earnings Season Begins

The market was relatively quiet last week as earnings season officially began. The major indices remain perched below record highs as the bulls continue to dominate the landscape. The fact that there remains virtually no selling is a net positive for the bulls. In the short-term, the market is extended to the upside and a light pullback would do wonders to restore the health of this very strong (and very long) bull market. Meanwhile, the intermediate and long-term outlook remains extremely bullish (for now). Eventually, that will change but until it does, weakness should be bought, not sold.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks fell on Monday as the Nasdaq snapped a 9-day winning streak. Wall Street paused ahead of earnings season. Looking forward, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 4% on a year-over-year basis, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. In Q1 and Q2 2017, earnings grew +15.5% and +10.8%, respectively. Stocks were relatively quiet on Tuesday as investors waited for earnings season to begin. Stocks were quiet on Wednesday after BlackRock (BLK) and Delta (DAL) reported earnings. ​The FOMC released the minutes of its latest meeting and basically said they will raise rates again in December.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks opened higher but closed lower on Thursday as investors digested the latest round of earnings from JP Morgan ($JPM) and Citigroup ($C). Separately, Bitcoin surged to a fresh record high above $5,300 which is a classic sign of a big bubble. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told CNBC “I think that we are about to see massive disruptions from cryptocurrencies.” Lagarde, also didn’t rule out the IMF developing its own digital currency. Turning back to earnings, CNBC reported that historically, this earnings season has been the best one for investors. Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, CNBC found the S&P 500 posts a gain of 2.3 percent on average 30 days after third-quarter earnings season begins, trading positive 79 percent of the time. Stocks were quiet on Friday after Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were some of the big companies that reported earnings.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks Start Fourth Quarter With A Bang!

Strong Start To Q4

The S&P has closed at a record high six straight days which is its longest run of the millennium (since 1997)! Stocks rallied sharply last week as the bulls remain in clear control of this market. At this point, the market is now extended (in the short term) and remains very strong. It is important to keep in mind that the fourth quarter tends to be a seasonally strong period for the market and that means we can easily head much higher over the next few months. In the short term, I would be remiss not to note that the market is extended to the upside and due to pullback. Underneath the surface, the action remains picture perfect as the great mini-rotation remains alive and well. Until we see any formidable selling, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. Remember, in strong bull markets (present market included), weakness should be bought, not sold.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday which marked the first trading day of the fourth quarter. Financials and health care stocks led the market higher which bodes well for the broader averages. The world woke up to the horrific news out of Las Vegas. The mass shooting sent several big casino stocks lower on Monday as they will have to rethink security in large public places. Separately, economic data was light, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.8 in September which was the highest read since May 2004. Stocks rallied on Tuesday as buying continued apace. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time this year which is largely expected to happen in December. The Fed already raised rates twice this year and said several times they plan to raise rates 3 times. Stocks rallied again on Wednesday helping the benchmark S&P 500 to have its longest winning streak since May. Economic data was mixed, ADP and Moody’s said private employers added 135,000 new jobs in September, beating the Street’s estimate for 125,000. Separately, the ISM non-manufacturing index, hit 59.8 in September and easily beat the Street’s estimate for 55.5.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday helping the S&P 500 to enjoy its first 8-day winning streak since 2013. The big news on Thursday came from D.C., the House passed a $4.1 trillion budget which is the first major step toward tax reform. Last week, the GOP said they want to lower corporate taxes to 20% from 35%. If that bill passes that will be a big boost the U.S. (and global) economy. Stocks were quiet on Friday as the market paused to digest a very strong rally. Separately, the Labor Department said U.S. employers shed 33k jobs in September as the country suffered from two major hurricanes.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Week, Month, and Quarter Higher

Stocks End Week, Month, and Quarter Higher

Stocks ended the week, month, and quarter higher as the bulls remain in clear control of the market. The great mini-rotation, a term I coined a few years ago, remains alive and well. The great mini-rotation refers to a bullish event that happens when big money rotates from one out-performing sector to another under-performing sector without the market moving lower. We saw this take place in the second half of the third quarter: big money rotated out of high beta-growth stocks and into under-performing areas of the market such as the small-cap Russell 2000 and the DJ Transportation index. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average continue trading near/at record highs. At this point, the market remains very strong and the fourth quarter tends to be a seasonally strong period for the market.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks fell on Monday after North Korea said the U.S. declared war by flying military planes over the weekend. The White House responded and said the U.S. did not declare war and that claim was “absurd.” Separately, the Nasdaq fell hard in the morning – led lower by the several high profile tech stocks. Shares of Facebook, Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google all fell hard on heavy turnover but the Nasdaq and several of these stocks turned around in the middle of the day as buyers showed up and bought the latest “dip”. Stocks bounced on Tuesday after Janet Yellen was dovish again and basically said easy money is here to stay (for now). Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech on Tuesday and said the Fed may have made a mistake assessing the health of the labor market and misjudged the rate of inflation. Dr. Yellen also made the case for a gradual pace of adjustments in the face of “significant uncertainties.” Yellen also said, the Fed should be “wary of moving too gradually.” Stocks edged higher on Wednesday after the GOP announced it’s plan to slash taxes.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday after GDP came in at 3.1%, matching estimates. The small-cap Russell 2000 hit a fresh record  high, leading the other indices. Stocks were quiet on Friday on the last trading day of the third quarter as several of the popular indices hit fresh record highs.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Busy Week Mixed

Stocks End Busy Week Mixed

Stocks ended mixed last week as investors digested a slew of data. First, global central banks sent mixed messages as the U.S. Fed was perceived to be slightly hawkish while Japan’s Central Bank was overtly dovish. Earnings were less than thrilling as most of the stocks that reported last week fell in heavy volume. Additionally, geopolitical tensions remained escalated as the rhetoric continued between North Korea and D.C. The German election is scheduled for Sunday and next week will be important as investors will be looking for: GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment and some Housing data. Technically, the Nasdaq 100 is trading near its 50 day moving average while the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are above that important level of support.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday as investors waited for a busy week of economic and earnings, and central bank data. The VIX (a.k.a the volatility index) fell below 10 which is a very low reading. Stocks edged higher on Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day meeting and President Trump gave a speech at the United Nations. Trump was very clear that he would not tolerate further aggression from N. Korea. Economic data was decent, housing starts came in at 1.180 million, beating estimates for 1.173 million. Stocks were quiet on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, said it will begin unwinding its massive balance sheet in October, and it plans to raise rates in December. Elsewhere, existing home sales came in at 5.350M, missing estimates for 5.480M.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks fell on Thursday, led lower by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 fell to its 50 DMA line which is a logical area of support. Leading indicators grew by +0.4%, beating estimates for a gain of +0.2%. Stocks were quiet on Friday as tensions remained high between N. Korea and the D.C. Separately, the new iPhone went on sale today but Apple’s stock remained under pressure. Going into the weekend, the market will be watching the German election and will be watching to see if North Korea will fire another missile.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks Hit Fresh Record Highs

Stocks Hit Fresh Record Highs

Stocks rallied sharply last week after the damage from hurricane Irma was much less than originally expected. Thankfully, in the 11th hour, Irma weakened considerably, made a last-minute turn, and skated up the west coast of Florida. The Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell all ended the week higher as investors continued to shrug off all negative news and bid stocks higher. The market looks very strong and the fact that it refuses to fall, even on bearish headlines, is a bullish sign. Last week, North Korea fired another missile over Japan, Retail Sales missed estimates and inflation came in higher than expected, but stocks rallied. That reiterates an important point- that it’s not the news that matters, but how the market reacts to the news. Until, we see any signs of weakness, the bulls remain in clear control.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday as the country remembered 9/11 and the market breathed a collective sigh of relief that Hurricane Irma weakened considerably and the damage was much less than expected. The market was also happy to see that North Korea did not fire another missile over the weekend. In China, inflation picked up after the producer-price index rose to 6.3% in August, beating the Street’s estimate for a gain of 5.5%. The stronger-than-expected reading came after Beijing announced new policies aimed at limiting capital outflows and continued pressure on crypto-currencies by banning them entirely from exchanges, while allowing over-the-counter trading to continue. Stocks edged higher on Tuesday as buyers continued to buy the latest dip. On Wednesday, the producer price index came in at +0.2%, missing estimates for +0.3%. North Korea decided to fire another missile over Japan which initially sent stock futures lower but then buyers showed up and stocks quickly recovered.

Thur & Fri Action:

Before Thursday’s open, the government said, the consumer price index came in higher than expected which was another sign that inflation may be increasing. Remember, higher inflation may put pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates. Stocks rallied on Friday even after retail sales came in at negative -0.2%, missing estimates for a gain of +0.1%.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Stocks Quiet Ahead Of The Hurricane

Stocks Quiet Ahead Of The Hurricane

The stock market remains very strong. The major indices slid last week but were quiet as the country waits for Hurricane Irma to hit Florida. and parts of the East Coast. Stepping back, the action remains healthy as the market continues to trade just below record highs and sellers remain at bay. From where I sit, the market action remains bullish. The fact that the market refuses to fall in any significant fashion illustrates how strong the bulls are right now. Additionally, it is bullish to see volume dry up as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq sit on their respective 50 day moving average lines. It is important to note that the Transports and the small-cap Russell 2000 continue to under-perform their peers which is not ideal. Stepping back, until we see any heavy volume selling, the bulls remain in clear control.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day Holiday. Stocks fell hard on Tuesday tensions spread regarding North Korea firing another missile. In the U.S., Factory Orders fell -3.3%, missing estimates for a decline of -3.2%. Stocks bounced back on Wednesday after the bulls showed up and defended the 50 DMA line for the Dow and S&P 500. Politically, two top Democratic leaders said they would support President Trump’s debt ceiling extension and government funding plan. Separately, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer resigned due to personal reasons. Economic data was mixed. The PMI services index came in at 56, missing estimates for 56.9. Separately, the ISM non-manufacturing index came in at 55.3, missing estimates for 55.8. The Fed’s Beige Book came out and showed Modest to moderate economic growth and offered a different assessment on the impact of Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the market shifted its focus to Hurricane Irma. Sir Richard Branson survived the Hurricane holed up in his concrete wine cellar.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks were relatively quiet on Thursday and Friday as millions of people left Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma. The price of Bitcoin plunged after China’s Central Bank may shut down the exchanges. Shares of Target fell after the retail giant said it will slash prices on a lot of items in an attempt to attract shoppers. Shares of Equifax (EFX) plunged over 13% on Friday after the company had a massive data breach which could impact 140 million people.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Week-In-Review: Bulls Back In The Driver's Seat

Bulls Back In The Driver’s Seat

The stock market remains exceptionally strong. Once again, the latest pullback was another strong buying opportunity. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and benchmark S&P 500 are all back above near-term support and, once again, flirting with new highs. This was another shallow/healthy pullback in both size (small percent decline) and scope (short in duration). Meanwhile, the two lagging areas: The Transports and the small-cap Russell 2000 both pulled back and found support near their respective longer term 200 DMA lines. Now they are flirting with their 50 DMA lines. When you step back and look at the bigger trend, the market remains exceptionally strong. Remember, in a very strong bull market (present market included), weakness should be bought, not sold. Going forward, August’s low is near term support and the bulls remain in clear control until that level is broken.

Mon-Wed Action:

Energy stocks, specifically, refinery stocks, lifted the market higher on Monday as Hurricane Harvey flooded Houston and the surrounding areas. RBOB gasoline futures soared nearly 7% on Monday alone and continued to rally all week. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in at 17.0, slightly higher than the Street’s estimate for 15. After Monday’s close, North Korea fired a missile over Japan and that lead futures to fall sharply overnight. On Tuesday, stocks opened lower but closed higher which was a net positive and set the stage for the market to rally for the rest of the week. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi indices both closed off their lows which was a subtle, but important, sign of strength. On the economic front, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index grew by only +0.1%, missing estimates for a gain of +0.3%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence came in at 122.9, beating estimates for 120.6. Stocks rallied on Wednesday helping the S&P 500 jump back above its 50 DMA line. Technically, that was a very  healthy sign. The ADP employment report showed private employers added 237k new jobs in August, beating estimates for 185k. Separately, GDP came in at 3%, beating estimates for 2.8% and that helps support the claim that the economy will grow better under President Trump.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday as the narrative shifted in D.C. to a tax cut. Chicago PMI came in at 58.9, slightly higher than the average estimate of missing estimates of 58.6. Meanwhile, Pending Home Sales fell by -0.8%, missing estimates for again of +0.4%. Before Friday’s open, the Labor Department said, U.S. employers added 156,000 new jobs in August, missing estimates for 180,000. Meanwhile, unemployment rate came in at 4.4%, missing estimates for 4.3%.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…