14 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Consolidate Monday's Large Move

Tuesday, September 14, 2010 
Stock Market Commentary

Stocks ended mixed after August’s retail sales topped estimates and gold surged to a fresh all-time high. Tuesday’s volume totals were reported about even on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq exchange compared to Monday’s levels. Decliners led advancers by a small margin on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 69 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 77 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Slower Growth in Europe Hurts Stocks:

Stocks in Europe were under pressure before Tuesday’s open after a report showed economic growth in the Eurozone was slowing. In the US, retail sales toppped estimates and rose by the largest pace in five months. The Commerce Department said total retail sales swelled by +0.4% following a revised +0.3% rise in July. This was the second consecutive monthly gain and bodes well for the economic recovery.  

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Tuesday’s action was considered normal after Monday’s large move. Overall, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) remains healthy. Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. All the major averages jumped above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines today which is another encouraging sign. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their summer highs.  It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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13 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Rally On New Bank Rules

Monday, September 13, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks rose sharply around the world after bank regulators met in Basel Switzerland over the weekend and passed a new set of capital rules for banks. Monday’s volume totals were reported higher on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange compared to Friday’s levels which was an encouraging sign of institutional sponsorship. Advancers led decliners by over a 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 77 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, nicely higher than the 30 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Basel III- New Bank Rules:

Over the weekend, bank regulators reached a new agreement in Basel, now known as “Basel III” which set new capital requirements for banks around the world. The new standards are viewed as bullish for the ailing financial industry as they help prevent excessive leverage which threatened the global financial system in 2008. The US Federal Reserve and a host of other major central banks and banking regulators said the new capital standards are a “significant step forward in reducing the incidence and severity of future financial crises.” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke; Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), and John G. Walsh, the acting head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, participated in Sunday’s discussions in Switzerland. Their agencies issued the joint statement.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Monday’s action was a healthy sign for the market rally that began on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. It was very healthy to see all the major averages jump above their respective 200 DMA lines on Monday as volume swelled. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their summer highs.  It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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10 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks End Holiday Week Higher

Friday, September 10, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended higher on this shortened holiday week as investors digested a slew of stronger than expected economic data. Friday’s volume totals were reported mixed; lower on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq exchange. Advancers led decliners by almost a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 7-to-6 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and trialed by a small margin on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 30 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 55 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Stocks Open Lower After Long Weekend:

Stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. On Tuesday, stocks slid amid fresh concerns that the EU debt crisis may derail the global economic recovery. However, the bulls returned from a one day hiatus and sent stocks unanimously higher on Wednesday as the dollar fell and EU debt woes eased. Demand for Portugal’s debt was strong enough to allay concerns of another imminent EU debt crisis. Elsewhere, a handful of high-ranked stocks raced higher, which bodes well for this 10-day rally. Stocks lost a little ground after the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book which showed the economy was easing across much of the country.

Thursday & Friday’s Action: Stocks Edge

Stocks opened higher on Thursday and gave back a fair part of earlier gains but ended higher after encountering resistance near their respective 200 DMA lines. Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell -27,000 to 451,000 last week which bodes well for the ailing jobs market. Elsewhere, the trade deficit narrowed more than forecast which bodes well for the global recovery. It is also encouraging to see very little distribution emerge since the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on the Wednesday, September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). Stocks ended higher on Friday as investors bet that the economy will grow,  albeit at a slower than expected rate.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines.  It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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09 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Economic Data Tops Estimates; 200 DMA Line Is Resistance

Thursday, September 9, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks gave back earlier gains but ended higher after latest round of economic data helped allay fears of a double dip recession. Thursday’s volume totals were mixed; higher on the NYSE and lower on the Nasdaq exchange. Advancers led decliners by a 5-to-3 ratio on the NYSE and by a 7-to-6 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 55 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher than the 54 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Economic Data Tops Estimates; 200 DMA Line Is Resistance:

Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell -27,000 to 451,000 last week which bodes well for the ailing jobs market. Elsewhere, the trade deficit narrowed more than forecast which bodes well for the global recovery. High ranked stocks fared well which is another sign that this nascent rally is strengthening. It is also encouraging to see very little distribution emerge since the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on the Wednesday, September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). 

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines.  It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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08 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Rally As EU Debt Woes Ease

Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks rallied across the globe as the dollar fell and EU debt woes eased. Wednesday’s volume totals were reported higher on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange which suggested large institutions were accumulating stocks. Advancers led decliners by over a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and almost a 2-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 54 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher than the 31 issues that appeared on the prior session.

EU Debt Woes Ease & Fed’s Beige Book:

The bulls returned from a one day hiatus and sent stocks unanimously higher as the dollar fell and EU debt woes eased. Demand for Portugal’s debt was strong enough to allay concerns of another imminent EU debt crisis. Elsewhere, a handful of high ranked stocks raced higher which bodes well for this one-week rally. Stocks lost a little ground after the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book which showed the economy was easing across much of the country.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines.  It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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07 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Fall Amid Fresh EU Debt Woes

Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks fell around the world as concern spread that the European debt crisis may worsen. The market’s internals were mixed with decliners trumping advancers but new highs leading new lows. The number of high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page were lower than the 71 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Fresh EU Debt Woes Send Stocks Lower:

Stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day Holiday. On Tuesday, stocks slid amid fresh concerns that the EU debt crisis may derail the fledging global economic recovery. Normally, it is healthy to see the major averages pullback on light volume shortly after a new follow-through day (FTD) emerges.
Last Wednesday, the market confirmed its latest rally attempt and spent the rest of the week advancing. Therefore, a modest decline after a four day rally is considered healthy as it offers investors a chance to accumulate high ranked stocks near appropriate buy points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell after encountering resistance near its 200 DMA line but managed to close above its 50 DMA line. The other major averages also closed above their short term 50 DMA lines, which is an encouraging sign.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines.  It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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03 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Busy Week On Wall Street; Stocks Rally

Friday, September 3, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended higher this week as investors digested a slew of economic data. Friday’s reported volume totals were about even on the NYSE and slightly higher on the Nasdaq exchange compared to Thursday’s levels. Advancers led decliners by over a 3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 71 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, nicely higher than the 47 issues that appeared on the prior session..

Monday -Tuesday’s Action- Stocks Edge Lower:

Stocks fell on Monday after the Commerce Department said disposable incomes, or the money left over after taxes, missed estimates while consumer spending rose +0.4%, matching estimates. Stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as investors digested a slew of economic data. Overnight, Asian stocks plunged, sending Japan’s Nikkei’s index to a 16-month low, which bodes poorly for other capital markets. Elsewhere, two stronger than expected economic reports: The S&P Case-Shiller Housing Index and the latest read on consumer confidence, helped lift stocks in the first half of the session.  However, stocks fell after a weaker than expected PMI report and the minutes of the latest Fed meeting were released. The minutes of the latest Fed meeting showed more infighting at the Fed which suggests the Fed may be “running out of bullets” to stimulate a slowing economy.

Wednesday-Friday’s Action- Market’s Follow-Through, New Rally Confirmed!

Stocks soared on Wednesday, produced a proper follow-through day (FTD), and confirmed their latest rally attempt (which began on Friday) after fear eased that the global economic recovery was in peril. Stocks surged around the world as the US dollar and treasuries plunged after manufacturing in the US and China grew faster than economists estimated. The stronger than expected manufacturing data from China and the US helped allay the woes of a global economic slowdown. 
Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

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02 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Edge Higher Ahead Of Jobs Report

Thursday September 2, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended higher on Thursday as investors digested a slew of economic data. Thursday’s reported volume total was lower on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchange compared to Wednesday’s high levels which suggests is somewhat normal one day before a big economic report is slated to be released. Advancers led decliners by over a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by almost a 2-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 47 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, one lower than the 48 issues that appeared on the prior session.  

ECB Holds Rates Steady, Retail Sales and Housing Data Top Estimates and Jobless Claims Inch Lower:

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to hold interest rates steady, near record lows, when they met on Thursday. ECB president Jean Claude Trichet said the ECB is ready to extend emergency bank lending if needed. In the US, retail sales unexpectedly topped estimates thanks to holiday tax incentives and pending sales of existing homes also beat estimates, rising +5.2% in July. Meanwhile, mortgage rates fell to +4.32% which is the lowest level in decades. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 472,000 last week which was matched the Street’s forecast. Investors are now waiting for August’s official nonfarm payrolls report to be released before Friday’s open.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.
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01 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

New Rally Confirmed!

Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks soared on Wednesday, produced a proper follow-through day (FTD), and confirmed their latest rally attempt (which began on Friday) after fear eased that the global economic recovery was in peril. Wednesday’s reported volume totals were higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange compared to Tuesday’s already high levels which suggests large institutions were aggressively buying stocks. Advancers led decliners by over a 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by over a 5-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but were about even on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 48 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, sharply higher than the 16 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Strong Manufacturing Data From China & US Send Stocks Soaring!

Stocks surged as the US dollar and treasuries plunged after manufacturing in the US and China grew faster than economists expected. The stronger than expected manufacturing data from China and the US helped allay woes of a global economic slowdown and sent stocks soaring! Apple (AAPL) jumped on heavy turnover after Steve Jobs introduced updated versions of their iPod media players and iTunes software. The new versions are designed to be more social-media friendly and allow users to see what their friends are downloading, share, and “follow” other users.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high ranked stocks trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases on Wednesday. However, the major indices’ 50-day moving average (DMA) lines currently serve as near term resistance with their 200 DMA lines as the next important level to watch.
It is of the utmost importance to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 and 200 DMA lines and their 50 DMA lines remain below their longer term 200 DMA lines. This ominous pattern is known as a death cross and typically has bearish ramifications. It is also important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.
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31 Aug
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks End August & 2010 In The Red

Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended mixed as investors digested a slew of economic data. Tuesday’s reported volume totals were higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange compared to Monday’s levels which suggested churning – which is usually a sign of distribution. Decliners trumped advancers by near a 20-to-17 ratio on the NYSE and trailed by a small margin on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but trailed new lows on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 16 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 19 issues that appeared on the prior session. For the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed -4%, the S&P 500 Index fell -6%, an the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the major averages lower, falling -6.8%. 

Stocks ‘Churn’ As A Slew Of Economic Data Is Digested:

Overnight, Asian stocks plunged, sending Japan’s Nikkei’s index to a 16-month low which bodes poorly for other capital markets. Elsewhere, two stronger than expected economic reports: the S&P Case-Shiller housing index and the latest read on consumer confidence, helped lift stocks in the first half of the session.  However, stocks fell after a weaker than expected PMI report and the minutes of the latest Fed meeting were released but closed flat for the day. The minutes of the latest Fed meeting showed more “infighting” within the Fed which suggests the Fed may be running out of “bullets” to stimulate a slowing economy.

Market Action- Day 3- In A Correction:

Tuesday marked Day 3 of a new rally attempt which means the earliest a possible follow-through day (FTD) could emerge will be Wednesday. However, if at anytime, Friday’s lows (Day 1) are breached then the day count will be reset. The technical action in the major averages has recently been weak while the latest round of economic data has provided a poor outlook for the market and the global recovery. Currently, resistance for the the major averages are their 50-day moving average (DMA) lines, then their longer-term 200 DMA lines while support remains July’s lows. It is also disconcerting to see weakness in the financial group. Meanwhile, the action in leading stocks and fact that some high-ranked leaders are breaking out of sound bases can be considered somewhat encouraging. Still there is importance in remaining cautious until the major averages are back in a confirmed uptrend. Put simply, we can expect this sideways/choppy action to continue until the market breaks out above resistance or below support. The first scenario will have bullish ramifications while the second will be clearly bearish. Trade accordingly.
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