Daily Market Commentary

Investors Digest A Slew Of Economic Data

18 Mar

Thursday, March 18, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages traded between positive and negative territory for most of the day after the dollar rose and investors digested a slew of economic data. Volume totals were reported lower on the Nasdaq exchange and on the NYSE compared to the prior session. Decliners led advancers by more than a 22-to-15 ratio on the NYSE and by a 5-to-4 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 46 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 77 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs again overwhelmingly trumped new lows on both exchanges.

Fed: To Raise, or Not To Raise, That Is The Question:

The dollar rallied after speculation increased that the Federal Reserve will raise its discount rate in the near future. The discount rate is the rate the Fed uses to charge banks for direct loans and was last raised after the market closed on Feb. 18, 2010. The Fed raised its discount rate by a quarter percentage point to +0.75% and said the move would encourage banks to rely more on money markets for short-term liquidity needs which would help stimulate the financial system.

Investors Digest A Slew of Economic Data:

Economic news was mixed: consumer prices were mild, leading economic indicators rose +0.1% last month while jobless claims slid. The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims dropped by -5,000 to 457,000 last week. Meanwhile, consumer prices were unchanged for the first time since March 2009. The Conference Board said the index of leading indicators rose +0.1% in February which was the 11th consecutive gain.   

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

The fact that we have not seen any serious distribution days since the FTD bodes well for this nascent rally. It is also a welcome sign to see the market continue to improve as investors digest the latest round of stronger than expected economic and earnings data. Remember that now that a new rally has been confirmed, the window is open to start buying high quality stocks. Trade accordingly.
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17 Feb
Daily Market Commentary

Quiet Day On Wall Street

Thursday, February 17, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks were quiet on Thursday after jobless claims rose more than expected last week and the consumer price index (CPI), which is used to measure inflation, continued to rise last month. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low, and still about -14% off its all time high from October 2007. On average, market internals remain healthy as the major averages continue marching higher. The fact that the major averages bounced back sharply after a very brief pullback in January illustrates how strong this 25-week rally actually is.

Jobless Claims, Inflation, Leading Indicators, & Philly Fed Survey Are Released:

Before Wednesday’s open, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 410,000 last week which topped the Street’s estimate for a gain of 17,000. The Labor Department also released the seasonally adjusted consumer price index which rose by +0.4% last month from December. On a year-over-year basis, prices swelled 1.6% before seasonal adjustments compared to the same period in 2010. However, core inflation, which removes food and energy prices and is considered the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by +0.2%. The report also showed that the annual underlying inflation rate stood at 1.0% in January which is still under the Fed’s target for 2.0%. At 10AM EST, leading economic indicators showed the economy continued to grow and the Philly Fed survey surged to 35.9, easily topping expectations.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 25

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

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17 Jun
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Edge Higher After Retesting 200 DMA Line

Thursday, June 17, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

The major averages ended slightly higher as investors digested a slew of economic data and BP’s (BP) CEO spent the day testifying on Capital Hill. Volume totals were reported lower on both major exchanges, which signaled that large institutions were not aggressively selling stocks. Advancers were about even with decliners on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange as the major averages continued consolidating Tuesday’s large move. There were 22 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 35 issues that appeared on the prior session.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Investors Digest A Slew of Economic Data: Jobless Claims, CPI, & Leading Indicators:

Before Thursday’s opening bell, the Labor Department said US jobless claims rose to 472,000 last week and the consumer price index slid which helped allay inflation woes. After the bell, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to a 10-month low of 8, less than half the median estimate of Wall Street economists. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators in April edged down -0.1%, following a +1.3% increase in the prior month.

Stock Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

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27 May
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Jump As China Eases Debt Woes

Thursday, May 27, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks surged around the world after China said it remains a long-term investor in Europe which helped the euro snap a losing streak and China’s stock market to score a follow-through day (FTD). Volume totals were reported lower compared to Wednesday’s totals on both major exchanges while the indices ended unanimously higher.  Meanwhile advancers trumped decliners by over an 8-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and over an 6-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 9 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.netLeaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.netBreakOuts Page, higher than the 8 issues that appeared on Tuesday. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.  It is difficult for the market to mount a sustained rally without a healthy crop of strong leaders.

China Eases Debt Woes & Scores a FTD:

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18 Feb
Daily Market Commentary

Day 9: Investors Digest A Slew of Economic & Earnings News

Thursday, February 18, 2010
Market Commentary:

Investors digested a slew of economic and earnings news on the 9th day of the current rally attempt. The earnings and economic news of the day sent mixed economic signals. Retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT) gapped down and sliced below its 50 DMA line after reporting tepid Q4 results. Earnings rose +9% while sales rose +1% vs. the same period in the prior year. While this was a strong improvement from the first three quarters of 2009, analysts were expecting better results. Barring some unforeseen event, the average company in the benchmark S&P 500 grew its earnings close to +70% last quarter which snapped a record nine quarter losing streak.
Fed Unexpectedly Raises Rates From +0.50% to +0.75%:

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15 Jan
Daily Market Commentary

Earnings Season Begins Stocks; Stocks Fall

Friday, January 15, 2010
Market Commentary:

It was disconcerting to see all the major averages negatively reverse on heavier volume than the previous week as investors digested a slew of economic and earnings related data. The heavier volume reversal for the major averages suggests that large institutions were aggressively selling, not buying, stocks. However, it was encouraging to see new 52-week highs still solidly outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange which is a welcomed sign.

Monday & Tuesday:

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15 Jan
Blog

Latest Media Quote- Dow Jones Newswire

Latest Media Quote:
Mr. Sarhan was quoted by Dow Jones Newswire on Friday 1.15.10. The article was picked up by several major news outlets. Here are a few:
Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com): http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100115-707328.html
Investor’s Business Daily (Investors.com): http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=106888049&source=Newsfeed&Ntt=
Market Watch: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-lower-as-financials-weigh-djia-off-25-2010-01-15

US Stocks Open Lower As Financials Weigh; DJIA Off 25

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks traded lower Friday despite Intel and J.P. Morgan Chase delivering fourth-quarter earnings above analysts’ estimates, as J.P. Morgan’s revenue missed expectations and its chief executive offered cautioning words.
Stock losses accelerated after a gauge of consumer confidence proved disappointing.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) fell 89 points, or 0.8%, to 10,621.40 in early trade.
The measure’s financial components led its decliners, with Bank of America (BAC) off 2.1% and J.P. Morgan (JPM) down 1.6%. J.P. Morgan’s fourth-quarter earnings quadrupled, but its revenue came in below analysts’ estimates and Chief Executive James Dimon warned the banking giant is cautious about the future, noting “consumer-credit costs remain high, and weak employment and home prices persist.” See J.P. Morgan story.

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14 Jan
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Rally On Disconcerting Economic Data

Thursday, January, 14, 2010
Market Commentary:

Stocks edged higher after weaker than expected economic data was released. Volume was reported slightly higher than the prior session’s totals on the NYSE and about even on the Nasdaq exchange, which suggested large institutions were buying stocks. Advancers led decliners by nearly a 11-to-8 ratio on the NYSE and by a 16-to-11 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 28 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher than the total of 20 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs still solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.
ECB, Jobless Claims & Retail Sales:

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07 Jan
Daily Market Commentary

Nasdaq Retreats; Other Major Averages Advance

Thursday, January 7, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages ended mixed after positive retail sales and weekly jobless claims were released. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported about even to slightly higher than Wednesday’s totals which indicated large institutions were accumulating, not distributing, stocks. Advancers led decliners on both major exchanges which was a positive sign. There were 32 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the total of 57 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, and new lows were again near the single digits.

Jobless Claims:

At 8:30AM EST, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than forecast to +434,000 in the week of January 2, 2010. Every Thursday, the Labor Department releases the report which compiles data showing the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. Remember, the report is counter intuitive because an increasing number means more people are filing for unemployment claims and suggests the labor market is waning. The converse is also true, lower readings is a sign of strength. Investors tend to look at the four-week moving average because it smoothes out weekly volatility. Investors are now focused on December’s employment report which is slated to be released before Friday’s opening bell. Analysts believe that last month’s reading will be unchanged which bodes well for the ailing jobs market. So far, since the recession began, US employers slashed over 7 million jobs as the unemployment rate hit a two decade high of 10.2% in the fourth quarter.

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