Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: Gold's 'death cross' signals more losses coming

30 Dec
Reuters

Reuters


By Frank Tang
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Gold rose two percent on Friday in a rebound rally, boosted as the euro rose against the dollar and as investors covered short positions the session after the metal hit a six-month low and briefly entered bear-market territory. Bullion is heading for a gain of around 10 percent for 2011, its 11th straight year of gains. But it remains down 18 percent from a record $1,920.30 set in September, set for its first quarterly loss in more than three years. “Gold’s technical set-up since late yesterday could be the start of a bullish reversal and a short-term bottom,” said Michael Matousek, senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc (GROW.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which has $2.5 billion in assets. “It is completely reasonable to be up $100 from here by the end of January or February on technical support,” Matousek said.
Spot gold rose 1.9 percent to $1,574.99 by 12:50 p.m. EST (1750 GMT), but it has limped into the end of the year with a 10 percent drop in December. U.S. February gold futures contract gained $35.90 to $1,576.80, on track to snap six straight sessions of losses. Despite Friday’s rally, technical factors suggest gold’s momentum has turned bearish. The 20-day moving average fell below its 200-day moving average, and the brief foray into a bear market suggest a further pullback could be on its way. Bullion’s 20-day moving average (DMA) dipped below its 200 DMA on Thursday, in what technical analysts termed a “death cross,” as short-term momentum has turned more negative than long-term momentum and could show that the current downtrend is pervasive.
Spot gold in consolidation phase:
“Any time there is a death cross. The market is telling us that the underlying strength has changed from bullish to bearish,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital. “When you start seeing a lot more bearish technical events occurring, more and more shorter-term traders are inclined to selling their positions,” Sarhan said.
Gold gave investors a return of 11 percent in 2011, but it underformed U.S. 10-year Treasuries, which returned about 17 percent; Brent crude oil, which gave around 14 percent; and German 10-year Bunds which returned 31 percent.
In recent months, gold has often shed its traditional safe-haven status as investors liquidated positions to free up cash as the euro zone debt crisis caused money markets to seize up. “We need to see the hot money from speculators, we need to see real money from the money managers coming back to this market. They have been absent throughout December,” Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said.
Silver rose 1.8 percent to $28.22, platinum was up 1.9 percent at $1,395.74 and palladium jumped 3.9 percent at $653.97.
Prices at 12:50 p.m. EST (1750 GMT)
(Additional reporting by Susan Thomas in London and Rujun Shen in Singapore; Editing by David Gregorio)
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29 May
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: Stock futures point to lower open on Fed uncertainty

ReutersBy Ryan Vlastelica

NEW YORK | Wed May 29, 2013 8:50am EDT

(Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wednesday, indicating a drop from record highs at the open as investors continued to question the longevity of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program.
Supportive monetary policies from central banks around the world have lifted equity markets this year, with the S&P 500 up more than 16 percent. On Tuesday, stocks soared and the Dow closed at another record high after the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank reassured investors that policies designed to boost economic growth would stay in place.
Last week, indexes fell on concerns that the program may be scaled back sooner than expected, and strong economic data on Tuesday stirred speculation that the Fed may begin tapering off its program soon. The concerns sent U.S. Treasury debt yields to their highest levels in over a year and pulled equities back from session highs.
“(Tuesday) was the first time we saw rates spike on concerns about the Fed tapering, and if that spreads, it will have negative ramifications for the rest of the market,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
While strong corporate earnings have also contributed to the equity market’s surge in 2013, central bank stimulus has pushed investors to add to positions on market declines, limiting extended selloffs. So, any change to the stimulus program may prompt a round of profit taking.
“There’s still a question about how much we can grow without stimulus, and what will happen to the market when rates go up,” Sarhan said.
S&P 500 futures fell 9 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures slipped 75 points and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 13.5 points.
Cyclical companies, closely tied to the pace of economic growth, have been volatile on uncertainty over the Fed’s stimulus measures. Bank of America (BAC.N) fell 0.8 percent to $13.24 in premarket trading while JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) was off 1 percent at $54.05.
In company news, Smithfield Foods (SFD.N) surged 25 percent to $32.55 in premarket trading after China’s Shuanghui Group agreed to buy the company for $34 a share.
Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) slumped 10 percent to $6.10 in premarket trading after the company reported its seventh straight quarterly loss.
Apple Inc (AAPL.O) Chief Executive Tim Cook said late Wednesday he expected the tech giant to release “several more game changers,” hinting that wearable computers could be among them.
(Editing by Bernadette Baum and Nick Zieminski)
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE94R0DB20130529

30 Dec
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Gold Quote: The Economic Times

The Economic Times

The Economic Times


NEW YORK: Gold’s 20-day moving average falling below its 200-day and its brief foray into a bear market suggest momentum has turned bearish and a further pullback could be on its way.  Bullion’s 20-day moving average (DMA) dipped below its 200 DMA on Thursday, in what technical analysts termed a “death cross,” as short-term momentum has turned more negative than long-term momentum and could show that the current downtrend is pervasive.
“Any time there is a death cross. The market is telling us that the underlying strength has changed from bullish to bearish,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.  Sarhan compared gold’s technical charts in December to a slow-motion train wreck , with the metal having plunged below its long-term upward trendline for the first time in three years and its key 200 DMA.  
Gold is on track to end the fourth quarter with its first quarterly loss since September 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed, marking the peak of the global economic crisis.
“When you start seeing a lot more bearish technical events occurring, more and more shorter-term traders are inclined to selling their positions,” Sarhan said. Spot gold rose 2 percent to above $1,580 an ounce on Friday in a rebound rally, a day after it briefly dropped more than 20 percent from its record high of $1,920.30 set on Sept. 6, flirting with the common definition of a bear market. The last time a clear death cross formed was in August 2008, following gold’s sharp rally toward $1,000 an ounce. The metal then tumbled to around $680 an ounce in October 2008, just two months after its 20 DMA plunged below its 200 DMA.
“A negative crossover in moving averages can be seen as a selling signal,” said Tim Riddell, head of ANZ Global Markets Research, Asia. “But in gold’s profile, it is probably a confirmation signal that gold has made a cyclical high in the third quarter, and will likely see a more protracted consolidation phase than the market would initially wish to see,” Reiddell said.
20 Oct
Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: METALS-Copper crumbles 7% as double-dip fears bite

Thu Oct 20, 2011 2:55pm EDT
* Copper leads commods rout with 6.6 pct decline
* Zinc, lead, aluminum hit lowest in more than one year
* EU summit will not reach EFSF decision – sources
* Coming up: Weekly Shanghai metals inventory data Fri.
By Chris Kelly and Silvia Antonioli
NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) – Copper prices tumbled nearly 7 percent on Thursday, the biggest one-day collapse in four weeks, on fears of a double-dip recession and growing doubts that Europe will get a handle on its debt crisis. Metals, often seen as a proxy for underlying economic conditions due to their wide use in industry, were hit hard by the specter of a global slowdown with lead, zinc and aluminum all hitting their lowest level in more than a year.
Taking its directional cues from Asia, where prices fell the 6-cent daily limit, copper’s decline far outstripped losses in other commodities, bucking its bullish supply situation, where the world’s second-largest copper mine is running at about two-thirds of its capacity after a month-long strike. Other risky assets like oil and agricultural commodities went down between one and two percent.
    “Copper tends to lead other markets. If copper prices are starting to begin another leg lower now — nearly 10 percent in just two days — that’s not just a blip on the radar … it is indicative of investors’ concern about the global economy,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of New York-based Sarhan Capital. 
“Copper right now is signaling that the global economy might be in for a double dip.” 
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper dived $475 or 6.6 percent to finish at $6,735 per tonne, its biggest daily decline since Sept 22, when it plunged over 7.5 percent.
In New York, the key December COMEX contract dropped 20.05 cents or 6.2 percent to settle at $3.0575, close to the bottom end of its $3.2350 to $3.0310 session range. Volumes perked up Thursday as the selling intensified. Close to 64,000 lots traded in New York, nearly 12 percent above the 30-day average, according to
Thomson Reuters preliminary data. Copper extended a reversal from Monday’s three-week high near $3.50 in New York and $7,660 in London, leaving both markets vulnerable for a retest of their 2011 lows, at $2.99 and $6,635, respectively.
“People are saying these metals are not trading on the fundamentals, they are trading on the macro, but there is nothing more fundamental in the worldthan the economic outlook,” analyst Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas said. “The bank’s (BNP Paribas) view is that Europe will muddle through and find a solution, but clearly the market is worried that that might not be the case,” he added.
A high-profile EU summit will go ahead on Sunday as planned, according to sources in Germany’s ruling coalition, but it will not reach a decision on leveraging the euro zone rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility(EFSF). Sentiment briefly improved after the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its index of business conditions in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rose in
October. WARY CUSTOMERS
BHP Billiton  , the world’s largest miner, in the face of short-term market volatility warned on Thursday of increasingly wary customers, although it said its order books were full due to resilient Chinese demand.”We are also seeing that customers are looking closely at their inventory levels as they operate their businesses, cognizant of the potential need totailor their plans if the global economic uncertainty continues,”  Chief Executive Marius Kloppers said in London. Customer buying interest remained strong, he said, fueled by China, where domestic stockpiles have been “substantially liquidated.”China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for roughly 40 percent of global demand of refined metal. Monthly imports of copper products rose to a 16-month high in September.
 
Metal Prices at 1816 GMT
COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu       306.35      -19.45     -5.97     444.70    -31.11
LME Alum      2085.00      -97.00     -4.45    2470.00    -15.59
LME Cu        6730.00     -480.00     -6.66    9600.00    -29.90
LME Lead      1789.00      -81.00     -4.33    2550.00    -29.84
LME Nickel   18000.00     -800.00     -4.26   24750.00    -27.27
LME Tin      21200.00     -725.00     -3.31   26900.00    -21.19
LME Zinc      1740.00      -98.00     -5.33    2454.00    -29.10
SHFE Alu     16040.00     -345.00     -2.11   16840.00     -4.75
SHFE Cu*     50950.00    -2940.00     -5.46   71850.00    -29.09
SHFE Zin     13850.00     -740.00     -5.07   19475.00    -28.88
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/markets-metals-idUSL5E7LK2EE20111020

27 Jul
Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: Metals- Copper Ends Off As Econ Worries Trump Supply Woes

Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:41pm EDT
* Copper ends down as macro-economic jitters bite
* Escondida strike pressures already tight copper market
* Aluminium, tin hit multi-week highs
* Coming up: US jobless claims, pending home sales Thurs.
(Rewrites, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing
copper price, adds analyst comments)
By Chris Kelly and Silvia Antonioli
NEW YORK/LONDON, July 27 (Reuters) – Copper closed down on Wednesday as
a firmer dollar and macro-economic concerns continued to cloud near-term
demand prospects and limit the bullish impact of a prolonged strike at the
world’s largest copper mine.
 
It was another day of divergence in the base metals complex, with
aluminum CMAL3 extending a recent rally to its highest since early June
and tin CMSN3 reaching its priciest level since mid-May at $29,000 a
tonne.
 
With deadlocked debt talks in the United States, lingering debt
troubles in the euro zone, and another round of poor U.S. economic data,
copper’s supportive supply-side fundamentals seemed to move to the
back-burner, with investors more focused on demand implications from any
potential slowdown in the global economy.
 
“Demand seems to be the most important side of the equation for all capital markets right now due to the fact that you have several concurrent themes that could drastically cut demand,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.
“If the debt situation is resolved swiftly and there is no demand destruction in the ramifications of the debt situation, then the focus is going to shift back to the supply side of the equation, and the strike will re-emerge as a leading force to drive copper prices.”
 
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper CMCU3 fell $40 to end at
$9,780 a tonne.
 
In New York, the key September COMEX contract HGU1 shed 3.15 cents to
settle at $4.4465 per lb.
 
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies .DXY, making
dollar-priced commodities costlier for holders of other currencies. [USD/]
Demand prospects dimmed after data showed new orders for long-lasting
U.S. manufactured goods fell in June and a gauge of business spending plans
slipped. [ID:nN1E76Q09V]
 
“Poor economic data this morning has the markets certainly moving to
the sidelines,” said David Bouckhout, senior commodity strategist with TD
Bank Financial Group.
 
As a result, trading volumes thinned out to a little more than 30,300
lots traded late in New York, down more than a third from the 30-day norm,
according to Thomson Reuters preliminary data.
 
 
But as a six-day strike at Chile’s huge Escondida mine showed no sign
of ebbing, copper’s downside risks looked limited, even as talks between
President Sebastian Pinera and unionists at state giant Codelco appeared to
ease the threat of contagion. [ID:nN1E76Q0UG]
 
“Analyst forecasts always build in at the beginning of each year supply
losses, and I think we are already at or close to exceeding those
forecasts,” said Evan Smith, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors Global
Resources Fund (PSPFX) — a natural resources fund with about $900 million
in assets under management.
 
“If we start to see restocking in China or more labor disruptions or
weather disruptions to supply, the copper price will probably continue to
move sideways to higher.”
 
In a Reuters poll, analysts forecast the copper market will be in a
343,150 tonnes deficit in 2011. COMMODITYPOLL16 Some think supply
tightness may push copper prices up to record levels again.
 
“Although it may take a few attempts to break the $10,000 mark, we
expect copper prices to move above that level later in the year,” Credit
Suisse said in a note.
 
END OF DESTOCKING
Inventories of copper in LME-registered warehouses rose by 700 tonnes
to 469,800 tonnes, over a third higher than in December last year.
 
MCU-STOCKS
(Graphic: r.reuters.com/hub62s )
 
High stocks of copper in the last few months raised concerns over
reduced demand in top consumer China, where consumers were seen tapping
into their domestic stocks rather than importing more material, analysts
said.
 
But the destocking phase may be close to an end.
 
“Data for the first half as a whole strongly suggests destocking in a
number of the commodities, although the most recent monthly data points
suggest this destocking may be coming to an end,” Macquarie said in a
note.
 
“For both copper and aluminium…destocking was at its strongest over
the first four months of the year, with the May and June data implying that
the market has been either better balanced (aluminium) or that producers
have started tentatively rebuilding inventory (copper).”
 
Metal Prices at 1821 GMT
COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu       444.40       -3.40     -0.76     444.70     -0.07
LME Alum      2644.00       -8.00     -0.30    2470.00      7.04
LME Cu        9779.00      -41.00     -0.42    9600.00      1.86
LME Lead      2690.00       15.00     +0.56    2550.00      5.49
LME Nickel   24395.00      295.00     +1.22   24750.00     -1.43
LME Tin      28745.00      145.00     +0.51   26900.00      6.86
LME Zinc      2522.00      -10.00     -0.39    2454.00      2.77
SHFE Alu     18310.00      295.00     +1.64   16840.00      8.73
SHFE Cu*     72810.00        0.00     +0.00   71850.00      1.34
SHFE Zin     19085.00      185.00     +0.98   19475.00     -2.00
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Editing by Keiron Henderson)
URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/27/markets-metals-idUSL6E7IR0QE20110727
 
31 Mar
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: METALS-Copper crumbles amid Chinese demand doubts

Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:20pm EDT
* Copper sinks as Chinese demand worries mount
* Copper stocks in China, LME warehouses in the spotlight
* U.S. copper runs into technical support at 100-day MA
* Coming up; Chinese manufacturing data Friday
(Recasts, updates with U.S. copper closing, adds graphic,
analyst comments and NEW YORK dateline/byline)
 
By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis
NEW YORK/LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) – Copper prices ended
sharply lower on Wednesday, on pace for their biggest monthly
decline since June 2010, as weaker demand cues from China and
fears about a moderation in the global economic recovery kept
many bulls sidelined.
 
Chinese monetary tightening measures, coupled with unrest
in the Middle East, rising oil prices, euro zone debt problems
and Japan’s nuclear crisis have all combined to throw the
magnitude of the global economic recovery into question, and
with it, demand for raw materials.
 
As a result, copper prices have responded, falling more
than 12 percent from their mid-February peaks at $10,190 per
tonne in London and $4.6575 per lb in New York, before
recovering to stand in aimless ranges at quarter’s end.
“From a fundamental standpoint, it’s leading a lot of
people to question whether or not they want to remain long
copper going into a new quarter,” said Adam Sarhan, chief
executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
 
London Metal Exchange copper for three-month delivery
CMCU3 dropped $209 to close at $9,381 a tonne, on track for a
5 percent fall in March, its first monthly decline since June
2010.
U.S. copper HGK1 followed suit, extending a downtrend in
place since mid-February before running into some technical
support near its 100-day simple moving average.
 
It settled down 7.25 cents at $4.2740 per lb.
Trading volumes began to perk up, with more than 47,000
lots traded by 2:24 p.m. EDT (1924 GMT). This was the first
time volume topped 47,000 lots since March 17, according to
preliminary Thomson Reuters data.
 
“All the bets were put on China,” said Eugen Weinberg, an
analyst at Commerzbank. “Sentiment in China is not as rosy and
not as upbeat as sentiment in Europe or the U.S.”
That being said, attention will now turn to Chinese
manufacturing data on Friday, where market participants will
see if the country’s vast manufacturing sector will recover
from the six-month low hit in February. [ID:nL3E7ET1H8]
“Are they going to maintain the growth, given that the auto
sector is in doubt and imports are trending lower,” asked Bart
Melek, vice president and director of commodities, rates
research & strategy with TD Bank Financial Group. “It’s
expected to move up by consensus a bit, but, if it’s a
disappointment, watch out.”
 
Despite the more cautious Chinese outlook, Jiangxi Copper
Co Ltd (0358.HK)(600362.SS), the country’s largest copper
producer, expects China’s consumption to rise by 10 percent to
12 percent this year and plans a 60 percent rise in its own
production capacity by 2015. [ID:nL3E7EU1D3]
Even data showing strong hiring by U.S. private employers
failed to give the market a boost, as investors awaited
Friday’s closely watched government report on non-farm
payrolls. [ID:nN30275708]
 
TRADITIONALLY STRONG QUARTER
Traders and analysts are waiting to see what will happen in
the second quarter, traditionally the strongest in terms of
demand, when China normally buys ahead of a pick-up in
construction activity in the third quarter.
 
“Anecdotally, something in the region of 600,000 tonnes of
refined copper currently (sits) in bonded warehouses in
Shanghai, with perhaps another 100,000 tonnes in the southern
ports,” Standard Bank said in a note.
 
Also in the spotlight are LME stocks of copper, which added
225 tonnes on Wednesday, bringing total warehouse levels to
439,725 tonnes, their highest since last July. <0#LME-STOCKS>
In other metals, aluminium CMAL3 came within $2 of
Tuesday’s session peak at $2,656 per tonne, its highest since
September 2008, before ending down $19 at $2,629.
Metal Prices at 3:48 p.m. EDT (1948 GMT)
COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 YTD Pct
move
COMEX Cu 426.85 -7.80 -1.79 444.70 -4.01
LME Alum 2629.00 -19.00 -0.72 2470.00 6.44
LME Cu 9380.00 -210.00 -2.19 9600.00 -2.29
LME Lead 2655.00 -30.00 -1.12 2550.00 4.12
LME Nickel 26025.00 -575.00 -2.16 24750.00 5.15
LME Tin 31225.00 -525.00 -1.65 26900.00 16.08
LME Zinc 2335.00 -40.00 -1.68 2454.00 -4.85
SHFE Alu 16835.00 5.00 +0.03 16840.00 -0.03
SHFE Cu* 71300.00 470.00 +0.66 71850.00 -0.77
SHFE Zin 18375.00 95.00 +0.52 19475.00 -5.65
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Pratima Desai in London; Editing by
Walter Bagley)