01 Sep
Daily Market Commentary

New Rally Confirmed!

Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks soared on Wednesday, produced a proper follow-through day (FTD), and confirmed their latest rally attempt (which began on Friday) after fear eased that the global economic recovery was in peril. Wednesday’s reported volume totals were higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange compared to Tuesday’s already high levels which suggests large institutions were aggressively buying stocks. Advancers led decliners by over a 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by over a 5-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but were about even on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 48 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, sharply higher than the 16 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Strong Manufacturing Data From China & US Send Stocks Soaring!

Stocks surged as the US dollar and treasuries plunged after manufacturing in the US and China grew faster than economists expected. The stronger than expected manufacturing data from China and the US helped allay woes of a global economic slowdown and sent stocks soaring! Apple (AAPL) jumped on heavy turnover after Steve Jobs introduced updated versions of their iPod media players and iTunes software. The new versions are designed to be more social-media friendly and allow users to see what their friends are downloading, share, and “follow” other users.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high ranked stocks trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases on Wednesday. However, the major indices’ 50-day moving average (DMA) lines currently serve as near term resistance with their 200 DMA lines as the next important level to watch.
It is of the utmost importance to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 and 200 DMA lines and their 50 DMA lines remain below their longer term 200 DMA lines. This ominous pattern is known as a death cross and typically has bearish ramifications. It is also important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.
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05 Jan
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks End Mixed on Mixed Economic Data

Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages closed mixed after spending most of the session in the red as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported higher than Monday’s totals which indicated large institutions were not aggressively dumping stocks. Advancers led decliners on the NYSE but trailed by a small margin on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 58 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the total of 63 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Strong Manufacturing Data Helps Stocks

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30 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks End With Modest Gains

The major averages opened lower on concern that the Fed will withdraw its stimulus measures sooner than expected as the economic recovery continues. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported XXXXX than Tuesday’s totals which indicated large institutions were XXXXXXX aggressively dumping stocks. Advancers led decliners by a X-to-X ratio on the NYSE and by a X-to-X ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were XX high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, XXXXXXXXX than the total of 27 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.
At 9:45 am, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released its Chicago purchasers index (PMI). The index surveys purchasers from both the manufacturing and non manufacturing (i.e. service) sectors of the economy. In the simplest form, the report compiles a survey to analyze business conditions in the Chicago area. The index came in at 60 which easily topped the Street’s forecast. The Chicago PMI has now posted three consecutive monthly gains all at accelerating rates (60.0 Dec, 56.1 Nov, 54.2 Oct). It was also the highest reading since January 2006! The stronger than expected report suggests the economy is improving and bodes well for the recovery. Paradoxically, evidence of a stronger economy led many to worry about the Fed withdrawing its stimulus measures and possibly erring on the side of raising rates in early 2010.
Looking at the market, the action remains constructive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, small cap Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite and NYSE Composite indices are all trading near fresh 2009 highs which bodes well for this rally. The inverse relationship with the US dollar has eased in recent weeks as both stocks and the greenback have rallied in tandem. Ideally, one would like to see leadership and volume expand over the next few weeks as the major averages continue advancing.

Wednesday 12.30.09

Market Commentary:

The major averages opened lower but closed higher on concern that the Fed will withdraw its stimulus measures sooner than expected as the economic recovery continues. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported lighter than Tuesday’s totals which indicated large institutions were not aggressively buying or selling stocks. Decliners led advancers by a 21-to-17 ratio on the NYSE and were about even on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 18 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the total of 27 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Stronger Economic Data:

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29 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks End Lower On Housing & Consumer Sentiment Data

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Market Commentary:

The major averages traded between positive and negative territory before ending lower as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was lower than Monday’s session which indicated large institutions were not aggressively dumping stocks. Advancers were about even with decliners on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchange. There were 27 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the total of 68 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Housing Data: The S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index

At 9:00 AM EST, the S&P/Case-Shiller® home price index was released. The index is used as a proxy for the housing market and tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan areas across the country. October’s reading came in at 146.58 vs.September’s 146.51, for a -7.3% year-on-year rate vs. a -9.4% decline in September. Housing stocks, sold off on the news which illustrates that the ailing housing market is still not out of the proverbial woods.
At 10:00 AM EST, the Conference Board released an upbeat report on consumer sentiment. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased by 2.3 points to 52.9. The survey covers five thousand consumers across the country each month and is used as a proxy for consumer spending. Typically, stronger consumer confidence translates into stronger consumer spending but they are not directly correlated each month.
Looking at the market, the action remains constructive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, small cap Russell 2000 index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq and NYSE composite are all trading near fresh 2009 highs. The inverse relationship with the US dollar has eased in recent weeks as both stocks and the greenback have rallied in tandem. Ideally, one would like to see leadership and volume expand over the next few weeks as the major averages continue advancing

At 9:00 AM EST, the S&P/Case-Shiller® home price index was released. The index is used as a proxy for the housing market and tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan areas across the country. October’s reading came in at 146.58 vs.September’s 146.51, for a -7.3% year-on-year rate vs. a -9.4% decline in September. Housing stocks, sold off on the news which illustrates that the ailing housing market is still not out of the proverbial woods.

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index

At 10:00 AM EST, the Conference Board released an upbeat report on consumer sentiment. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased by 2.3 points to 52.9. The survey covers five thousand consumers across the country each month and is used as a proxy for consumer spending. Typically, stronger consumer confidence translates into stronger consumer spending but they are not directly correlated each month.

Market Action: Objective Analysis of Price & Volume

Looking at the market, the action remains constructive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, small cap Russell 2000 index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq and NYSE composite are all trading near fresh 2009 highs. The inverse relationship with the US dollar has eased in recent weeks as both stocks and the greenback have rallied in tandem. Ideally, one would like to see leadership and volume expand over the next few weeks as the major averages continue advancing.

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24 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Santa Claus Visits Wall St.

The market closed higher for the week and on Thursday’s shortened pre-holiday session. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was lighter than Wednesday’s levels, again revealing the lack of appetite for accumulating shares from very large and influential institutional investors. Advancers led decliners by nearly a X-to-X ratio on the NYSE and by over a X-to-X ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were XX high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher from the total of 63 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, while new lows were in the single digits on both exchanges.
Stocks ended this shortened holiday week higher as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. On Monday, the major averages rallied on Monday as the latest round of mergers and acquisitions were announced. It was also encouraging to see the major averages rally even as the US dollar advanced. Since early December, the US dollar has steadily advanced but the major averages have managed to hold their own and move sideways to slighter higher during that period which is a significant change from the recent inverse relationship that prevailed for most of this year.
Before Tuesday’s opening bell, the Commerce Department said third quarter GDP rose by +2.2% which was lower than prior estimates and led many to question the health of the ongoing recovery. The report showed that companies curbed spending and cut inventories due to lackluster demand. At 10:00AM EST, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped +7.4%  to a 6.54 million annual rate. The report was the highest in more than two years and led many to question whether or not the ailing housing market has finally bottomed. It was encouraging to see stocks rally even in the face of weaker-than-expected economic data and a stronger dollar. Remember, a hallmark of a strong market is to see stocks rally even in the face of otherwise bearish news (i.e. weaker GDP #’s and a stronger dollar).
Investors digested a slew of economic data and sent stocks higher on Wednesday. At 7:00AM EST, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) said its purchase application index fell -11.6% while its refinance index fell -10.1%, both below consensus. On a more positive note, the report showed that long term mortgage rates remain extremely low with 30-year loans averaging +4.92%. At 10:00AM EST, the Commerce Department said new home sales plunged -11% in November to a 355,000 annual rate which fell short of estimates. Furthermore, the report included downward revisions of 42,000 in the prior two months. New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the prior month.
Elsewhere, personal income in November rose by +0.4%, following a rise of +0.3% in October. This was just below the Street’s estimate of a +0.5% gain. The wages and salaries component of the report rose +0.3% after a +0.1% increase in October. The report showed that inflation eased last month. The headline PCE price inflation component fell to +0.2% from +0.3% in October. Core PCE inflation was unchanged in November, down from a +0.2% increase in October. On Thursday, stocks edged higher after the US Commerce Department said orders for durable goods, goods meant to last several years, rose in November.
Looking at the market, the action remains ideal. The small cap Russell 2000 index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite have all hit fresh 2009 highs this week. Leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE composite just below their respective 2009 highs. Again, the fact that the market managed to rally and hit new highs in the face of disconcerting economic data is a very strong sign. Ideally, one would like to see leadership expand over the next few weeks as the major averages continue 1charging higher

Thursday 12, 24, 2009
Stock Market Commentary:
The market closed higher for the week and on Thursday’s shortened pre-holiday session. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was lighter than Wednesday’s levels, again revealing the lack of appetite for accumulating shares from very large and influential institutional investors. Advancers led decliners by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 62 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, one less than the total of 63 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, while new lows were in the single digits on both exchanges.
Monday:
Stocks ended this shortened holiday week higher as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. On Monday, the major averages rallied as the latest round of mergers and acquisitions were announced. It was also encouraging to see the major averages rally even as the US dollar advanced. Since early December, the US dollar has steadily advanced but the major averages have managed to hold their own and move sideways to slighter higher during that period which is a significant change from the recent inverse relationship that prevailed for most of this year.
Tuesday:
Before Tuesday’s opening bell, the Commerce Department said third quarter GDP rose by +2.2% which was lower than prior estimates and led many to question the health of the ongoing recovery. The report showed that companies curbed spending and cut inventories due to lackluster demand. At 10:00AM EST, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped +7.4%  to a 6.54 million annual rate. The report was the highest in more than two years and led many to question whether or not the ailing housing market has finally bottomed. It was encouraging to see stocks rally even in the face of weaker-than-expected economic data and a stronger dollar. Remember, a hallmark of a strong market is to see stocks rally even in the face of otherwise bearish news (i.e. weaker GDP #’s and a stronger dollar).
Wednesday & Thursday:
Investors digested a slew of economic data and sent stocks higher on Wednesday. At 7:00AM EST, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) said its purchase application index fell -11.6% while its refinance index fell -10.1%, both below consensus. On a more positive note, the report showed that long term mortgage rates remain extremely low with 30-year loans averaging +4.92%. At 10:00AM EST, the Commerce Department said new home sales plunged -11% in November to a 355,000 annual rate which fell short of estimates. Furthermore, the report included downward revisions of 42,000 in the prior two months. New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the prior month.
Elsewhere, personal income in November rose by +0.4%, following a rise of +0.3% in October. This was just below the Street’s estimate of a +0.5% gain. The wages and salaries component of the report rose +0.3% after a +0.1% increase in October. The report showed that inflation eased last month. The headline PCE price inflation component fell to +0.2% from +0.3% in October. Core PCE inflation was unchanged in November, down from a +0.2% increase in October. On Thursday, stocks edged higher after the US Commerce Department said orders for durable goods, goods meant to last several years, rose in November.

Price & Volume Action:

Looking at the market, the action remains healthy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, small cap Russell 2000 index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite have all hit fresh 2009 highs this week. Leaving the NYSE composite just below its 2009 high. Again, the fact that the market managed to rally and hit new highs in the face of disconcerting economic data and a stronger dollar is a very strong sign. Ideally, one would like to see leadership and volume expand over the next few weeks as the major averages continue advancing.

22 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Rally On Lighter Volume

sp500 closed below resistance

sp500 closed below resistance


Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Market Commentary:
Stocks in the US closed higher after the latest round of economic data was released. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was lower than Monday’s levels. Advancers led decliners by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 16-to-11 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 52 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher from the total of 43 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.
Economic Data:
Before Tuesday’s opening bell, the Commerce Department said third quarter GDP rose by +2.2% which was lower than prior estimates and led many to question the health of the ongoing recovery. The report showed that companies curbed spending and cut inventories due to lackluster demand. At 10:00 AM EST, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped +7.4%  to a 6.54 million annual rate. The report was the highest in more than two years and led many to question whether or not the ailing housing market has finally bottomed.
USD vs. Dollar Denominated Assets
Continuing the recent trend, stocks and the USD both advanced today. However, other dollar denominated assets (i.e. many commodities) edged lower. Investors are still not sure if this is the beginning of a new trend: stocks are now decoupled from the USD or if this is a brief anomaly which will pass after the new year?
Price & Volume Action:
According to Bloomberg.com, the Street expects 2010 earnings to grow +24% which follows a -12% decline in 2009 for the average company in the S&P 500. The survey also showed that first quarter earnings are expected to grow +28% when compared to the same period in 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 index both closed below their respective resistance levels on this shortened holiday week. Elsewhere, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite hit another fresh 2009 high as investors continue to flock to tech stocks for potential growth. However, we would be remiss not to note that volume has steadily declined as the market edges higher which is not a “good” sign.

16 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks End Mixed As Investors Digest A Slew Of Data

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Market Commentary:

The major averages ended mixed as investors digested a slew of important data: the Fed concluded its last meeting of the year, housing starts topped estimates and consumer prices matched forecasts. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported lighter than Tuesday’s totals on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange which signaled large institutions were not aggressively buying or selling stocks. Advancers led decliners by about a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by nearly a 4-to-3 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 53 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the total of 42 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs substantially outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Economic Data: CPI & Housing Starts Ease Fears

At 8:30 AM EST, two important economic reports were released: the consumer price index (CPI) and housing starts. The Labor Department said consumer prices rose by +0.4% in November after gaining +0.3% in October. The headline number matched estimates which helped allay inflation woes. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged last month and was below the Street’s estimate for an increase of +0.1%. Elsewhere, the Commerce Department said housing starts, which are registered when construction begins on a new residential building, were in line with estimates and rose +8.9% to an annual rate of 574,000 units. Meanwhile, building permits, a sign of future construction, jumped to the highest level in a year which was an encouraging sign. The pre-market news left investors optimistic about the future because the data signaled that the economy was recovering while inflation remained somewhat contained.

Fed Meeting: Hold Rates Steady 0-0.25%

At 2:15 PM EST, the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting and decided to leave interest rates steady near historical lows of 0-.25%. Time Magazine named Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke as person of the year thanks to his ability to save the country’s financial system from the worst recession since the WWII. Many economists believe that the US economy will grow over +4% in the fourth quarter of 2009 which will be the fastest pace in almost four years. However, stocks sold off after the Fed’s announcement because many investors believe that keeping rates this low will cause rampant inflation down the road.

Price & Volume Action: Still Healthy

On Wednesday, the major averages closed near important resistance levels as leading stocks were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P 500 index closed below 10,500 and 1,115, their respective resistance levels. The Nasdaq composite closed just above 2200 which has served as an important level of resistance for the tech heavy index in recent months.
At this point, the action remains healthy as long as the major averages remain above their respective 50-day moving average lines. So far the market has held up rather nicely to the slew of economic data that was released this week. As long as this action continues, the major averages deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt.

14 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Dow & S&P 500 Enjoy Best Close of 2009!

Monday, 12.14.09

Market Commentary:

The major averages edged higher on Monday after Abu Dhabi announced it would bail out Dubai World and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM -4.31%) announced plans to buy XTO Energy Inc. (XTO +15.35%) for $31 billion. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported higher than Friday’s totals on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange which was a healthy sign. Advancers led decliners by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by about a 2-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 51 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher than the total of 25 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs substantially outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE, yet the leadership was less substantial on the Nasdaq exchange.

Dubai Gets Bailed Out!

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09 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Late Dollar Decline Lifts Stocks

Market Commentary

The major averages ended higher thanks in part to a late day decline in the US dollar. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was lower than Tuesday’s levels on both major exchanges which signaled that large institutions were not aggressively buying stocks. It was encouraging to see new 52-week highs outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Tepid Economic Data Weighed On Stocks

Stocks were under pressure for most of the session after disconcerting economic data was released from Europe and Asia. In Asia, Japan’s government said that the world’s second largest economy grew at a +1.3% annualized rate last quarter. Not only was this way below estimates but it fell short of the +4.8% initial rate reported last month. The sharp downward revision caught nearly everyone off guard and sparked concern that a double dip recession may actually occur. In Europe, Standard & Poor’s lowered Spain’s credit outlook to “negative” and said they were concerned with the country’s slow economy and massive deficit spending. This occurred one day after a separate rating agency downgraded Greece’s credit rating. Stocks in Greece plunged this week as investors scramble to move into “safer” assets.

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08 Dec
Daily Market Commentary

Stocks Fall On Negative Economic Data

Tuesday 12.08.09

Market Commentary:

The major averages opened lower as the dollar strengthened for a fifth consecutive session. A slew of negative headlines were released on Tuesday which led many investors to question the ongoing economic recovery: German industrial production unexpectedly fell, several credit-rating companies highlighted the risk of huge government deficits, and Dubai World’s Nakheel PJSC said it lost $3.65 billion. Leadership among high-ranked growth stocks had dried up in recent weeks, so the expansion in new highs this week has been a welcome improvement. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

Ratings Downgrades:

The major averages gapped down at the open after several well-known rating agencies downgraded several nation’s credit. Moody’s Investors Service said deteriorating public finances in the U.S. and U.K. may “test the Aaa boundaries.” They also said that the U.S. and U.K. have “resilient” Aaa ratings while Canada, Germany and France’s ratings are “resistant.” Fitch Ratings, another well-known rating agency, cut Greece down to a BBB+ which is the third-lowest investment grade. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s put Greece’s A- rating on “watch” for a possible downgrade.

Economic News:

Overseas, Japan’s government supported 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) stimulus package to help their economic recovery. In Europe, German industrial output slid -1.8% in October led by a drop in production of energy and investment goods. This was lower than the average estimate for a +1% percent gain, according a Bloomberg.com. Elsewhere, Nakheel, the Dubai World-owned property developer seeking to renegotiate its debt, said that it had a first-half loss of 13.4 billion dirhams ($3.65 billion) due to lower revenue. A spokesman for Dubai World, Nakheel’s parent, declined to comment on the write down.

U.S. Dollar & Commodities:

The weaker-than-expected economic news from Germany coupled with the multi billion dollar loss from Nakheel sent the US dollar higher and a host of dollar denominated assets lower. Crude oil slid for a fifth consecutive day and gold continued falling from its all-time high last Thursday.

Price & Volume:

The U.S. stock market remains resilient as it simply refuses to go down. Longstanding readers of this column know that we prefer to focus more on how the market reacts to the news than the news itself. That said, the bears had all the possible ammunition to send stocks plunging on Tuesday and the fact that they did not (or could not), speaks volumes. In addition, the market remains strong since it has barely “corrected” and continues consolidating its recent move just below resistance. Looking forward, the bulls deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt until one of the major averages trades, and closes, below its respective 50 day moving average line.

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