Day 1 Of A New Rally Attempt

Friday, May 21, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks got clobbered this week sending all of the major averages below their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines as contagion and economic woes dominated the headlines. A series of options expired on Friday which caused a spike in volume compared to Thursday’s levels on both major exchanges. All week, volume expanded as the major averages declined which was a clear sign that institutional investors were aggressively dumping stocks. In addition, breadth was decisevly negative on both major exchanges. New 52-week lows steadily outnumbered new 52-week highs which is not an encouraging sign.

Monday & Tuesday’s Action- The Selling Begins:

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Day Count Reset as Correction Intensifies

Special Mid-Day Update:

For those of you that are fans of IBD (investors.com) or our work on CANSLIM.net, this morning, all the major averages sliced below their recent lows which means the day count is reset and we are now looking for Day 1 of a new rally attempt to occur.  At this point, the 200 DMA line (i.e. 40 week moving average) remains support for all the major averages. If that level is breached, on a closing basis, then odds favor lower prices will follow. Again, the tape remains inordinately weak and defense is king until a new follow-through day (FTD) emerges. Trade accordingly.  

sp 500 undercut recent lows

sp 500 undercut recent lows


Nasdaq comp undercuts recent lows- day count reset

Nasdaq comp undercuts recent lows- day count reset


INDU-recent lows breached

INDU-recent lows breached

 
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Stocks Snap A 4 Week Losing Streak- 2.12.10

Friday, February 12, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages snapped a four week losing streak after the EU said it will help Greece with its ballooning budget deficits. Stocks closed lower on Monday after concern spread that several European countries may default on their debt. Greece, Spain and Portugal are the three primary suspects for the latest sovereign debt crisis. 

Monday- Friday Review:

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Week In Review- 4th Consecutive Weekly Decline! 2.5.10

Friday, February 5, 2010
Market Commentary:

Stocks got smacked for the fourth consecutive week as the dollar rallied and fears spread that the economic recovery may slow. During that period, volume patterns have turned bearish on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchange which suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Decliners steadily lead advancers which is another disconcerting sign.  It is also worrisome to see the number of new 52-week highs continue to shrink as the number of new lows continues to expand.

Monday & Tuesday:

Stocks rallied on Monday continuing the recent string of a strong start to the week before the bears show up and send stocks lower by Friday. Stocks rallied on strong manufacturing reports from the US, Europe, and China. The Institute for Supply Management said that US manufacturing enjoyed its largest gain since August 2004 which was a welcomed sign. On Tuesday, stocks and commodities rallied as the dollar fell after healthy news from the ailing housing front was released and the Australian central bank unexpectedly left interest rates steady.

Wednesday- Friday:

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